Buresh Blog: Neighborhood weather...King tides...El Nino winters...Sept. skies... 9-11 25 years ago

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The First Alert weather team has helped expand the First Alert Neighborhood Network by the hundreds across Northeast Florida & Southeast Georgia over the past several years. We now have county by county mapping online that shows temperatures and rainfall that updates every 5 minutes through the day & night ‘round the clock - go * here * to see the current weather in your area for Duval, St. Johns, Nassau, Clay, Baker, Columbia, Bradford & Union Counties in Fl... Camden, Glynn, Charlton, Brantley, Ware & Pierce Counties in Ga.

It’s the King Tide season - Sept./Oct./Nov. King tides occur when the moon is at its closest point (perigee) to the earth (still 200,000+ miles away) each fall which adds to the gravitational pull when the the sun, earth & moon are “lined up” or - on other words - during the full & new moon phases which occur twice each month. Higher than average tides are the result & can be even higher if/when winds are blowing from the ocean toward inland areas (onshore winds or out of the east). Otherwise, nuisance type flooding is typically the result including coastal areas, the intracoastal & along the St. Johns River & its tributaries.

The El Nino - a warming of the equatorial Pacific - continues to strengthen. The upside is a lower number of tropical cyclones for the Atlantic Basin... the downside - potentially serious global weather impacts including the possibility for strong winter storms from California to Florida (though Fl. needs the rain) & a serious stress on some marine life.

It is worth mentioning that not all El Nino’s are created equal & it seems important to point out that while this El Nino looks to be the strongest since at least 1997, the globe’s oceans are quite a bit warmer overall this year vs. 29 years ago. This difference *may* result in different impacts during this year’s record or near record El Nino vs. 1997 though what that might entail exactly is an unknown. Ultimately - as is true with most all weather phenomena - no two “events” are exactly alike (like no two snow flakes are exactly alike).

The two images below show the 1997 sea surface temps. in late Aug. vs the current - Sept. 7 - sea surface temps. Very little cooler than avg. water to be found right now.

The Jacksonville N.W.S. has compiled the numbers for an El Nino winter for Jacksonville. Averages show a cool & wet winter though big temperature swings that include hard to severe freezes are *generally* less likely:

September night skies (Sky & Telescope):

Sept. 9 (morning): For the next two weeks from dark locations at mid-northern latitudes, the soft glow of zodiacal light should be visible beginning about two hours before sunrise. Look toward the east for a tall, hazy pyramid of pale light.

Sept. 9 (dawn): The Moon, two days shy of new, rises in the east-northeast with Regulus 4° away.

Sept. 13 (dusk): Find an unobstructed horizon to the west-southwest to see the waxing crescent Moon with blazing Venus 5° to the upper left and Spica 3° to the upper right.

Sept. 17 (dusk): Antares smolders in the south-southwest 5° right of the nearly first-quarter Moon.

Sept. 22: Autumn begins in the Northern Hemisphere at the equinox, at 8:05 p.m. EDT (5:05 p.m. PDT).

Sept. 26 (evening): The full Moon climbs in the east with Saturn a bit less than 6° below it.

Sept. 30 (evening): The waning gibbous Moon trails the Pleiades by about 5° as they climb in the east-northeast.

Oct. 3–4 (all night): Saturn arrives at opposition, appearing opposite the Sun in the sky.

Oct. 4 (dawn): The waning crescent Moon is in Gemini with Pollux about 3° to the upper left. Mars and Jupiter, arranged in a line extending toward the eastern horizon, complete the scene.

Oct. 5 (dawn): The crescent Moon, bracketed by Mars above and Jupiter below, visits the Beehive Cluster (M44) in Cancer. Use binoculars to tease out the cluster stars.

Oct. 6 (morning): The lunar crescent and Jupiter rise above the east-northeastern horizon in tandem. Viewers in the eastern half of the U.S. and Canada will see the Moon eclipse the planet.

Moon Phases

Last Quarter Sept. 4 3:51 a.m. EDT

New Moon Sept. 10 11:27 p.m. EDT

First Quarter Sept. 18 4:44 p.m. EDT

Full Moon Sept. 26 12:49 p.m. EDT (Harvest Moon; full Corn Moon)

So this year marks 25 years since that fateful September 11th in 2001. The day was clear across the Northeast which unfortunately set the table for the hijacked airliners. A cold front moved offshore the day before keeping hurricane Erin far to the east. Skies were sunny and temperatures were mild with low humidity.

Sept. 10 U.S. weather map:

Sept. 11 satellite imagery after the Towers had collapsed:

Some of my own memories:

-- I was still working in Cincinnati in 2001 on that unforgettable day (moved to Jacksonville 11 months later). I was driving to work at WKRC-TV when the 2nd plane hit the South Tower just a bit after 9am. I immediately thought - along with most everyone else - “there’s no way this is an accident”.

-- Of course, our news coverage - a bit of local but mostly network - was nonstop with very little need for weather as the pattern was quiet. I simply went home early in the afternoon to be with my family - we had a 7 month old then & our dog, Butch.

-- It was sickening to watch & listen to the horror of that day.

-- At the time we lived only about 10 miles from the Cincinnati Int’l. Airport, & the skies were so quiet - for several days - as all air travel was grounded. In fact, everything seemed quiet.

-- My neighbor was a firefighter. I felt for him.

-- Most everyone drove with their headlights on for at least a week after the attacks.

-- Patriotism was at an all-time high.

-- My wife & I took a trip to New York City in January, 2002 to pay our respects at Ground Zero. We felt it was important to see & witness history. It was unforgettable. We had been there just 5 years earlier on a long weekend of sightseeing that included the “Lion King” on Broadway - pretty special.

The trip in 2002 was memorable for different reasons, for all the wrong reasons. Search & recovery was still ongoing at Ground Zero. We took a subway ride that ended not far from where the Twin Towers once stood. When we exited, there still were restaurants & stores with food & tables inside left as they were on the morning of Sept. 11 at the time of the attacks but otherwise empty - quite literally frozen in time. 4 months later it was still very eerie. The work at Ground Zero was sacred. Podiums had been built where one could view what was going on. Loud cheers would come from the podiums when emergency workers would exit giving way to the next shift. There still were signs & notes along fences from people looking for loved ones. There were memorials to those known to have not survived. It was remarkably quiet for such a busy place in such a big city. It was solemn & full of prayer, reflection & hugs. It was sad.

-- We revisited the area in 2018 when our kids were teenagers. By then the National September 11 Memorial & Museum had been completed. We felt that history was important for our kids to understand & to see.

-- I wonder today if & how our country could or would rally around one another under similar circumstances. It seems we’ve burned many, many bridges. Unity these days seems so distant no matter what the situation might be.

It is critical we never forget September 11th, 2001 - locally, nationally & internationally. It’s important we remember seeing the best of humanity emerge despite witnessing the very worst of humanity just moments before. The rally of a nation... the feeling of “we’re all in this together”, the empathy. That America was indeed beautiful & that God Bless America was still alive & well.

Pics I took during a 1997 visit from the Empire State building:

Pics from Ground Zero search & recovery in Jan. 2002:

Firehouse, Engine Company 10 - first to respond to the World Trade Center on 9-11 (that’s me bent over tending to our 11-month old):

St. Paul’s Chapel visit in 2018 - memorable & eerily quiet - literally a refuge for thousands after 9-11:

The National September 11 Memorial & Museum: