Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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Disturbed weather - lots of of disorganized convection - continues over the Southwest Gulf & near & over Central America.
Weak low pressure appears to be taking shape & will continue to do so over &/or near the Bay of Campeche. Through much of the week ahead, there should be some semblance of northward movement at a very slow pace. This evolution will likely be gradual but should - at the very least - bring more heavy rain to soaked areas of the Gulf Coast from Texas & Louisiana to Mississippi & Alabama later in the week. Early indications are that this system stays well west of Florida. Rainfall forecast maps are already showing a “blob” of heavy rain along the Gulf coast:
Note the cloudiness & convection over Central America, Southern Mexico & much of the SW Gulf:
Saharan dust. Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink - is extensive over especially the Central Atlantic. Such widespread dust is common early in the hurricane season:
2021 names..... “Bill” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20). Last year - 2020 - had a record 30 named storms. The WMO decided beginning in 2021 that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened twice - 2005 & 2020). More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
There have been several vigorous tropical waves that have moved west off Africa during the last week. No significant development is expected for now, but this might be an indication of active season emanating from the deep tropics.
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear which is widespread from the Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean eastward across much of the Atlantic:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content is lacking but typical for so early in the season:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:
Global tropical activity: