Talking the Tropics With Mike: Elsa speeding west/northwest

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Elsa:

* there are too many variables right now - to know exact impacts - for Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. - or any of Fl. or the continental U.S. but it seems likely there will *at least be some* impacts.

* Jacksonville impacts look to be centered on Tue./Wed. .... as of right now - heavy rain, some flooding, gusty winds & isolated tornadoes would be possible along with rough seas & surf at our beaches

* this weekend would be good time to sweep away any debris from storm sewers... to clean the gutters along your roof... & to trim back trees.

* anyone traveling to the Caribbean should expect interruptions during their trip this weekend. The Lesser Antilles (Windward Islands) will see marked improvement through the weekend, but the Greater Antilles impacts will increase over the weekend including Cuba, Haiti & Jamaica.

* with the holiday weekend approaching, don’t lose track of this tropical system - continue to get updated forecasts each day.

What was a strong tropical wave speeding west/northwest over the Central Atlantic was upgraded to t.d. #5 late Wed. evening & tropical storm “Elsa” early Thursday & now - early Fri. - a hurricane while moving over Barbados. This is the fastest ever to the 5th storm beating the old record of “Edouard” on July 6th, 2020.... the farthest east that a hurricane has formed since the infamous 1933 season... & well ahead of the avg. first Atlantic hurricane of Aug. 14th.

The storm is slowly gaining some latitude (a little more north) while moving W/NW. Overall conditions are favorable for strengthening for the moment, but the fast movement should impede intensification (induces some of its own shear) until Elsa reaches the western edge of the Bermuda ridge when the tropical cyclone will slow while turning more north. We could potentially have a stronger hurricane on our hands near Jamaica &/or Cuba if Elsa can overcome the forward motion. It appears the Bermuda High will remain strong - possibly even expanding some - through the weekend. This set-up should continue to push Elsa W/NW through the weekend followed by more of a turn to the north. Any turn north will ultimately depend on the strength & positioning of the Bermuda High east of Florida while a rather strong upper level trough quickly swings east over the Eastern U.S. then lifts north/northeast over the NW Atlantic. Another wild card is any land interaction - Hispaniola & Cuba - in particular. Elsa will cross the Eastern & Northeast Caribbean through Sat... just southwest of Haiti late Saturday... & close to Jamaica then near/over Cuba Sunday-Monday... & potentially near &/or over Florida by Tue. then cross Fl. into Ga. through Wed. night. I would expect we would have to see some slowing of Elsa before it can make any meaningful turn northward. Such slowing will occur when the storm finds the “soft spot” on the western edge of the Bermuda High & the soon to be Eastern U.S./NW Atlantic trough.

Forecast models have finally! started to come into better agreement, but one has to give the nod to the GFS at this point given that model has been strongest & the most west. The first few days - through Sun. - are pretty straight forward with a steady, swift movement to the west/northwest. The American GFS model has been pretty steady the last several days with a pretty well developed, sometimes even strong tropical cyclone that crosses Cuba then moves into the far Southeast Gulf while turning northward & eventually into or near Florida. Recent trends have been for a weaker Fl. landfall Tue.-Wed. It is worth noting that the GFS model was tweaked during the offseason because of the model missed several developing tropical cyclones last year.

The European model had been having a tough time “finding” the wave that’s become Elsa... had been trending better recently but has clearly not been in the game to this point. The model takes the system through the Northeast Caribbean & now mostly missing Hispaniola just to the southwest. The model has it nowhere near as strong as Elsa currently is & remains generally weaker & more north & east than most other reliable models but has definitely trended west. It would seem the European model depicts a stronger trough over the Eastern U.S. residing long enough to make for the earlier alleyway east of Florida steering what the model thinks is a shallow system. I believe the Euro might be getting “tricked” by the low pressure that will develop over the W. Atlantic with the seasonally strong trough that’s approaching. Maybe the model is “combining” too much of the low pressure. In any case - given the current & past state of affairs - it’s difficult to give much credence to the European - at this point, at least. Though very recent model cycles now put the Euro in line with most other major global forecast models.

The UKMET model - has not initialized a strong enough storm & has jumped around a lot. The latest operational output is similar - for the moment - to the GFS with a weak Florida landfall Tue./Wed.

There is a lot of convection on satellite imagery from the Bahamas northward for several hundred miles due to the approach of the strong upper level trough. That’s probably the hint of the weakness that the Euro was seeing (??). In any case, virtually all the models see no sharp turn north so early.

It’s noteworthy that there is a warm eddy of water over the SE Gulf - something to consider if Elsa makes it into that area (image below) though sea surface temps. are actually a bit below avg. However - at least at this point - conditions over the Eastern Gulf do not look as favorable with an increase in shear next week not to mention we’ll have to see how intact Elsa is once the storm moves away from its land interaction with the Greater Antilles.

Any impact on Florida looks to be beyond the 4th of July but not by much with at least some fringe effects *possible* for South Florida as early as Monday. A track anywhere from the Central Gulf to Florida is the most likely outcome.

Elsewhere... The “lead” tropical wave moving across the Caribbean but is being torn apart by strong shear. No tropical development is expected in the short term, but it could be something to watch over the Western Gulf, I suppose. & yet another tropical wave has just emerged off the coast of Africa.

And a rather strong - for midsummer - upper level trough (that’s part of the equation for Elsa’s movement) will swing into the Eastern U.S. through the weekend developing low pressure near the coast south & southeast of Chesapeake Bay. While some tropical or subtropical characteristics would be possible, the low will swept quickly off to the east/northeast over the open W. Atlantic.

Elsa spaghetti plots:

The Bermuda High is forecast Sunday to be fairly strong but also rather far to the east over the Central Atlantic. The exact location & strength of the high will be critical on where Elsa goes - its turn to the north - & how fast.

Saharan dust. Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink - is extensive over the Central & Eastern Atlantic. Such widespread dust is common early in the hurricane season:

2021 names..... “Fred” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20). Last year - 2020 - had a record 30 named storms. The WMO decided beginning in 2021 that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened twice - 2005 & 2020). More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear which is widespread from the Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean eastward across much of the Atlantic:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is slowly increasing across the SE Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:

Global tropical activity: