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*** NO significant *direct* tropical impacts for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. through the weekend.... BUT Eta impacts for South Florida by late in the weekend into next week ***
Tropical depression #29 was upgraded Sat. afternoon & to tropical storm Eta Sat. evening then to a hurricane (12th of the Atlantic season) early Mon. - a high end Cat. 4 Mon. afternoon/evening followed by a Cat. 4 landfall on the northeast coast of Nicaragua Tue. afternoon. So Eta becomes the record-tying storm - 28th - for most in a single season. According to Dr. Klotzbach, Eta is also only the 5th Cat. 4 Nov. hurricane in the Atlantic Basin (Cuba Hurricane, 1932; Lenny, 1999; Michelle, 2001; Paloma, 2008). Conditions (shear, water temps., moisture) were all favorable for steady & rapid strengthening interrupted only by an eyewall replacement cycle Mon. night. The combination of the change in structure + proximity to land took Eta a bit off its peak while on a very slow journey inland. Eta re-emerged over the far Western Caribbean Thu. night & should slowly re-organize while moving northeast across the Caribbean. There will be no impact to Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. or any of the U.S. (for a change!) through Saturday BUT......
The ultimate outcome of where Eta goes & how it gets there remains subject to change but all the “pieces” are there, so it will come down to interaction with the steering forces including the high pressure ridge to the east of Fl. & the incoming trough over the U.S. & Gulf.
KNOW: * low pressure will move over the Caribbean into Sat.
* the system will only slowly try to organize
* the steering influences are subtle & changeable
* the system will likely remain active through much if not all of next week(!)
DON’T KNOW: *exact track
* how strong
* the exact details/location of hair pin turns due to interaction with an upper low over the Gulf of Mexico
MODELS:
The GFS has been emphatic that Eta would make a comeback over the Caribbean then to near Fl. by the weekend while peeling back to the west to the Gulf before turning north & northeast again & so has been pretty good - at least so far - with Eta. The GFS now is a little faster & a little more north... enough so that the center would move over far South Florida by Sun. night/Mon. then over the Eastern Gulf before turning north/northeast with a 2nd landfall mid to late week over the Fl. Panhandle or NW Fl.
The European model & UKMET were not indicating such as these models had been taking Eta solidly inland over Central America.... even into the E. Pacific eventually then developing a second & separate system to the east. But both models have been & are trending toward the GFS solution. Of course, the devil is in the details which has been - & will continue to be - highly variable with subtle variations having potentially big impacts. The Euro moves Eta to near Cuba late in the weekend & near South Florida while bending back to the west Sun. night - Mon., before resuming a northward motion over the Eastern Gulf coming ashore Fri. over the Fl. Panhandle.
None of the models are particularly strong - for the moment - once over the Eastern Gulf probably because of some dry mid & upper level air, shear & the potential for more of a hybrid/subtropical system.
So.... we have a conundrum when it comes to the ultimate outcome with Eta. We do have a tropical threat to parts of the Caribbean & Florida as early as late this weekend then through much of next week - between Nov. 8 & Nov. 16th. It looks like this will all play out over an extended period of time on the order of 7-10 days!
As a whole forecast models are generally struggling with “all the low pressure” at low latitudes including the tropics not to mention the typical autumn-related fast-to-change meridional flow (troughs of low pressure & ridges of high pressure) over the higher latitudes. So we’ll still see a good deal of changes & fluctuations in the forecast models in the coming days - for a while probably - with - at times - some fairly wild “end games” / solutions with where tropical systems might go & strong they might be.
Eta will be moving north out of the Caribbean through next week as the upper level flow goes back to what we’ve seen most of the hurricane season: a trough over/near the Central U.S. with increased ridging near Fl. or perhaps a little to the east. How this all evolves will be critical in steering whatever tropical systems are lurking. Stay tuned!
So... stay up to date on the latest forecasts & don’t fall asleep on the tropics as we move through the last month of the official Atlantic hurricane season.
Heavy rain potential into next week near Florida. Note the heavy rain across the Ohio Valley & Midwest which is partially due to an incoming upper level trough of low pressure that will eventually have some “say” in where the tropical disturbance near Fl. goes.
Eta is back over the Caribbean while moving northeast. As upper level high pressure builds to the east & upper level troughing increases over the Central/Western U.S., any Caribbean tropical system will likely then turn more northwest or even west before turning again to the north & northeast. Complicated & interesting, maybe a little frustrating not to mention subject to change!
More spaghetti:
The upper level ridge to the north & northeast of Eta that’s guided the storm inland over Central America is breaking down. The ridge is shifting back north &/or northeast to some degree which opens the door again for Eta to turn northeast in the short term before hitting the brick wall (Bermuda High).
The charts below are the upper level (500mb) European model forecasts for Sat., Nov. 7th & Mon., Nov. 9th respectively. The evolution of the degradation of the ridge of high pressure the next few days + how a weak upper level trough evolves to the north & west followed by another intrusion of an upper level high by the weekend will be critical in where Eta goes during the next 5-10 days.
Eta technically developed on Oct. 31st but the map below will suffice & shows the Caribbean is a relative “hot bed” for late season/first 10 days of Nov. tropical cyclones:
Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:
Saharan dust:
2020 names..... “Wilfred” was the last name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18 & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list). Interesting side note: the last six of the names on the ’20 list had never been used. So it’s on to the Greek alphabet. "Theta” is next... the first time the Greek alphabet has been used since 2005 (total of 27 named storms using 6 Greek letter names in ’05). When & if Theta forms, it will break the record for the most Atlantic storms in a single season on record.
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content is impressive across the SW Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico & especially the Caribbean:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Global tropical activity:
The West Pacific remains active. Typhoon “Goni” steam-rolled through the Philippines last weekend (made landfall late Sat. with estimated sustained winds of 195 mph!!) ... weakened considerably while moving into Vietnam - but was the country’s 5th tropical cyclone within the last 1-2 months causing yet more flooding.
“Atsani” will track on a path more to the north than Goni & will stay relatively weak.