Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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*** The first round of impacts from Eta have occurred for South Florida but a second round will be possible late week into the weekend for parts of Western Fl. & the Panhandle***
FOR JACKSONVILLE/NE FL./SE GA:
** gusty winds peaked through Monday evening & will remain breezy but not as strong through midweek averaging 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Occasional shower/t’storm bands will potentially produce gusts of 30-40 mph.
** dangerous rip currents at area beaches with rough seas/surf much of this week.
** on-&-off rain bands (not *directly* associated w/ Eta) will move from east to west across the area through Friday. These bands will produce brief strong winds, heavy rain & isolated waterspouts. Rainfall through the end of the week will average 1-2″, locally 3″+ with heaviest amounts from near I-95 to the coast.
** some minor flooding, especially at high tide due to persistent strong onshore winds (despite Eta far to the west)... with higher than avg. tides also along the St. Johns River & some of its tributaries + a new moon phase over the weekend. Tide times * here *.
** some heavy rain & a gusty breeze may linger into the weekend depending on the exact location of Eta by Fri. into Saturday at which point Eta should be far off its peak intensity.
Tropical depression #29 was upgraded Sat. afternoon, Oct. 31st & to tropical storm Eta Sat. evening then to a hurricane (12th of the Atlantic season) early Mon., Nov. 2nd - a high end Cat. 4 Mon. afternoon/evening followed by a Cat. 4 landfall on the northeast coast of Nicaragua Tue. afternoon. So Eta becomes the record-tying storm - 28th - for most in a single season. According to Dr. Klotzbach, Eta is also only the 5th Cat. 4 Nov. hurricane in the Atlantic Basin (Cuba Hurricane, 1932; Lenny, 1999; Michelle, 2001; Paloma, 2008). Conditions (shear, water temps., moisture) were all favorable for steady & rapid strengthening interrupted only by an eyewall replacement cycle Mon. night. The combination of the change in structure + proximity to land took Eta a bit off its peak while on a very slow journey inland. Eta re-emerged over the far Western Caribbean Thu. night... moving northeast across the Caribbean with a landfall on Central Cuba early Sunday, Nov. 8 as a strong tropical storm the the upper Fl. Keys Sunday night near 11pm EST. This is a record 12th U.S. landfall this year with at least one U.S. landfalling named storm in every month since May! Eta is now cleanly over the S/SE Gulf of Mexico & will have some impact on Western Cuba as the storm stalls just north/northeast of the Yucatan Channel. The Gulf will be “home" now for Eta through the week, approaching Northwest Fl. &/or the Panhandle Fri. into the weekend.
The ultimate outcome of where Eta goes & how it gets there remains subject change but all the “pieces” are there, so it will come down to interaction with the steering forces/currents including a high pressure ridge to the east of Fl. & an incoming mid latitude trough over the U.S. & Gulf.
KNOW:
* Eta stays west of the Fl. Peninsula this week though models are trending east
* the steering influences are subtle & changeable
* Eta will “be a thing” through this week, even into the weekend(!)
DON’T KNOW:
*exact track
* how strong. There is a distinct possibility that Eta becomes a hurricane over the Southeast Gulf of Mexico as shear decreases. In fact, if nearby dry air doesn’t become too much of a hinderance, Eta could become a powerful hurricane for a time. Once Eta starts to get pulled north/northeast over the Eastern Gulf, conditions (shear, water temps., dry air) become less favorable & the storm should weaken by late week. Shear may become so strong that the mid & upper level center are removed from the low level center by Fri./Sat.
* the exact details/location of hair pin turns due to a ridge of high pressure to the east.... & a broad trough of low pressure over the U.S. will be the main determining factor on exactly where Eta tracks. A stronger Eta will have a tendency to get farther north/northeast over the Gulf... a weaker system will have a tendency to be steered by the low level flow & would end up going more west & northwest.
MODELS:
The models noticeably shifted east Tuesday....
The GFS has been emphatic that Eta would make a comeback over the Caribbean then to near Fl. by last Sunday while peeling back to the west to the Gulf before turning north & northeast again & so has been pretty good - at least so far - with Eta. The GFS has generally been faster & a little more north & recent model runs take the storm all the way south to just north of the Yucatan Channel before stalling then moving north/northeast. The model has been flip-flopping on whether or not the trough “catches” Eta but recently has trended to allowing such taking a weak Eta ashore on the west coast of Fl. then continuing northeast across N. Fl.
The European model is pretty close to the GFS solution though generally slower & farther north late this week reaching the Fl. Panhandle by Fri./Sat. as a weak tropical storm or perhaps a depression. The UKMET has trended toward the European solution but has not been at all consistent during the past week or so.
None of the models are particularly strong by Fri. into the weekend. The weakening is likely tied to some dry mid & upper level air, increasing shear, & cooler water temps. There is the potential for more of a hybrid/subtropical type system by the weekend.
So.... we should have Eta “around” through the entire upcoming week & perhaps beyond.
RECAP:
As a whole forecast models are generally struggling with “all the low pressure” (there will again be some tropical development soon over the Caribbean) at low latitudes - the tropics & subtropics - not to mention the typical autumn-related fast-to-change meridional flow (troughs of low pressure & ridges of high pressure) over the higher latitudes. So we’ll still see a good deal of changes & fluctuations in the forecast models in the coming days. Special (4 times a day) weather balloon launches are underway across Fl. & much of the Southeast U.S. along with NOAA research aircraft sampling the atmosphere over & near Eta. The data will be incorporated into the forecast models & will hopefully help with better model initialization resulting in more accurate forecasts. There have been & will be some fairly wild “end games” / solutions with where tropical systems might go & strong they might be & unfortunately we’ll see this publicized in some “circles”. It looks like Eta will stay at least a little west of the spine of the Fl. Peninsula but still possibly have some direct impacts on the west coast & the Panhandle. No need to panic... it’s best to simply be prepared, aware & up to date each & every day.
Eta’s sinusoidal track will continue as the upper level flow goes back to what we’ve seen most of the hurricane season: a trough over/near the Central U.S. with increased ridging near Fl. & to the east. How this all evolves will be critical in steering Eta. Stay tuned!
Lots of dry air lurking in the vicinity of Eta:
The steering “players”: After moving steadily west/southwest & even a little south, Eta will be almost stationary into Wed. as the storm gets trapped in a region with little/or no steering flow. As upper level high pressure to the east re-strengthens & upper level troughing increases over the Central U.S. & Gulf of Mexico, Eta will turn more north then northeast before steering currents potentially again weaken toward the weekend. Complicated & interesting, maybe a little frustrating not to mention subject to change!
More spaghetti:
Eta technically developed on Oct. 31st but the map below will suffice & shows the Caribbean is a relative “hot bed” for late season/first 10 days of Nov. tropical cyclones:
Theta has formed over the East Atlantic - the record 29th storm of the season beating the record of 28 in the infamous year of 2005. Theta will stay over the Eastern Atlantic & is no threat to the U.S. . Early indications are that Theta will weaken over the Northeast Atlantic before reaching Europe.
Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:
Elsewhere... Another tropical wave moving into the Caribbean does have some longer range potential for gradual development. It appears this system would stay over/near the Caribbean (vs. turning north) as the disturbance moves toward the west & bends a little southwest.
Saharan dust, dry air:
2020 names..... “Wilfred” was the last name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18 & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list). Interesting side note: the last six of the names on the ’20 list had never been used. So it’s on to the Greek alphabet. "Iota” is next... the first time the Greek alphabet has been used since 2005 (total of 27 named storms using 6 Greek letter names in ’05). When & if Theta forms, it will break the record for the most Atlantic storms in a single season on record.
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Global tropical activity:
The West Pacific remains active with yet another soaker - “Etau” for Vietnam followed by strengthening “Vamco” moving across the Philippines & eventually possibly Vietnam(!) :