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*** The first round of impacts from Eta have occurred for South Florida over the past weekend. Round 2 will be across much of Fl. & parts of Ga. through Thu. night into Friday ***
FOR JACKSONVILLE/NE FL./SE GA:
** I do not expect major or any long term interruptions of our general infrastructure resulting from Eta. Any power outages should be sporadic... tree damage mostly minor... & any flooding mostly of the nuisance type. Businesses should be able to remain open for the most part & day to day activities should be able to easily resume after Eta moves away.
** gusty winds increase again Thursday into Friday. Winds sustained 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph. Winds will potentially gust to 50+ mph south & southwest of Jacksonville Thu./Thu. night closer to the center of then weakening Eta.
** dangerous rip currents at area beaches with rough seas/surf much of this week.
** on-&-off rain bands will move from the southeast to northwest across the area through Thu. night diminishing from west to east Fri. These bands will produce brief stronger winds, heavy rain & isolated waterspouts. There will be the chance for an isolated tornado Thu.-Thu. night when Eta is to the west & southwest of Jacksonville. Rainfall through the end of the week will average 1-2″, locally 3″+.
** some minor flooding, especially at high tide with higher than avg. tides also along the St. Johns River & some of its tributaries + an approaching new moon phase. Tide times * here *. Some might remember the severe flooding with Irma in 2017 when the storm was in a similar location to where Eta is forecast to be. THIS IS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SITUATION. It looks to me that the flooding will *not* be near as severe since Eta will be much weaker than Irma was while coming in more from the west vs. Irma’s approach from the south & southwest. Still... there will likely be at least some - mainly nuisance - flooding in some of the same locations as during Irma in ’17 (downtown Jacksonville, near the St. Johns River & its tributaries... a rise on Black Creek but not a major flooding situation).
** virtually *no* storm surge due to Eta’s angle of approach + weakening trend
Tropical depression #29 was upgraded Sat. afternoon, Oct. 31st & to tropical storm Eta Sat. evening then to a hurricane (12th of the Atlantic season) early Mon., Nov. 2nd - a high end Cat. 4 Mon. afternoon/evening followed by a Cat. 4 landfall on the northeast coast of Nicaragua Tue. afternoon. So Eta becomes the record-tying storm - 28th - for most in a single season. According to Dr. Klotzbach, Eta is also only the 5th Cat. 4 Nov. hurricane in the Atlantic Basin (Cuba Hurricane, 1932; Lenny, 1999; Michelle, 2001; Paloma, 2008). Conditions (shear, water temps., moisture) were all favorable for steady & rapid strengthening interrupted only by an eyewall replacement cycle Mon. night. The combination of the change in structure + proximity to land took Eta a bit off its peak while on a very slow journey inland. Eta re-emerged over the far Western Caribbean Thu. night... moving northeast across the Caribbean with a landfall on Central Cuba early Sunday, Nov. 8 as a strong tropical storm the the upper Fl. Keys Sunday night near 11pm EST. This is a record 12th U.S. landfall this year with at least one U.S. landfalling named storm in every month since May! Eta has been over the Gulf of Mexico since Sunday night moving north/northeast becoming a hurricane again Wed. morning - the latest Gulf hurricane since “Kate” in 1985. There will be Florida & South Ga. impacts through Thu. night - the 2nd Eta Fl. landfall & 4th overall (Nicaragua, Cuba, Keys, W. Fl. coast).
The ultimate outcome of where Eta goes & how it gets there remains subject to at least some change but all the “pieces” are there, so it will come down to interaction with the steering forces/currents including a high pressure ridge to the east of Fl. & an incoming mid latitude trough over the U.S. & Gulf.
* Eta stays west of the Fl. Peninsula through Wed. before swinging east & moving across Fl. Landfall looks to be near/over the Southern Big Bend & north of Tampa Wed. night into Thu. morning.
* the steering influences are subtle & changeable
* Eta will be speeding up the next couple days, & it looks now like Eta will be east of Florida by the weekend & moving away. Rain will quickly end from west to east as Eta passes & the underside - south part - of the circulation will “lose” much of its widespread heavy rain due to dry air wrapping counter-clockwise into the storm’s circulation as the system devolves into a post-tropical low pressure area.
* Eta did again become a hurricane over the Southeast Gulf of Mexico as the tropical cyclone found a “sweet spot” over the Southeast Gulf. As Eta gets pulled north/northeast over the Eastern Gulf then turns more sharply to the east, conditions (shear, water temps., dry air) become less favorable & the storm should weaken rather steadily Thu. into Fri. Shear may become so strong that the mid & upper level centers are removed from the low level center by the end of the week which would imply a very weak system by then.
* the exact details/location of hair pin turns due to a ridge of high pressure to the east that is starting to break down.... & a broad trough of low pressure over the U.S. will be the main determining factor on exactly where Eta tracks. A stronger Eta will have a tendency to get farther north/northeast over the Gulf for a time... a weaker system will have a tendency to be steered by the low level flow allowing for the turn to the east as the upper level trough goes by to the north.
MODELS:
The models have been significantly shifting east & increasing the forward speed ....
The GFS has been emphatic that Eta would make a comeback over the Caribbean then to near Fl. by last Sunday while peeling back to the west to the Gulf before turning north & northeast again & so has been reasonably good - at least so far - with Eta. The GFS has generally been faster & a little more north which seems to be playing out. The model has been flip-flopping on whether or not the trough “catches” Eta but recently has trended to a “catch” & takes a weakening Eta ashore on the west coast of Fl. then continuing northeast, even east across N. Fl. then out to sea again.
The European model is pretty close to the GFS solution now though generally slower & farther north so a little later on the turn east. The UKMET has trended toward the European solution but has not been at all consistent during the past week or so.
All in all, there is better model agreement now with Eta making a landfall near the Fl. Big Bend north of Tampa then weakening pretty quickly while turning more to the east. The weakening makes sense & is tied to some increasing shear + land interaction not to mention cooler ocean water & some dry mid & upper level air.
So.... we should be able to get Eta out of the area & east of the entire U.S. by the weekend & re-generation over the Atlantic looks unlikely.
RECAP:
As a whole forecast models are generally struggling with “all the low pressure” (there will again be some tropical development soon over the Caribbean) at low latitudes - the tropics & subtropics - not to mention the typical autumn-related fast-to-change meridional flow (troughs of low pressure & ridges of high pressure) over the higher latitudes. So we’ve been seeing a lot of changes & fluctuations in the forecast models. Special (4 times a day) weather balloon launches are underway across Fl. & much of the Southeast U.S. along with NOAA research aircraft sampling the atmosphere over & near Eta. This data will be incorporated into the forecast models & will hopefully help with better model initialization resulting in more accurate forecasts. There have been & will be some fairly wild “end games” / solutions with where Eta might go & how strong it might be.
No need to panic... it’s best to simply be prepared, aware & up to date each & every day.
Eta’s sinusoidal track has been tied to the upper level flow which has returned to what we’ve seen most of the hurricane season: a trough over/near the Central U.S. with increased ridging near Fl. & to the east. How this all evolves has been critical in steering Eta. It’s becoming apparent the western portion of the ridge is breaking down enough & shifting east so that Eta will make a move inland across North Florida. Stay tuned!
Courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:
Moderate shear will increase through Thu. likely leading to the low level center becoming detached from the mid & upper level center. Ocean temps. will be cooler as well. So the expectation is for Eta to weaken some prior to landfall & then to weaken quickly once inland.
Lots of dry air lurking just west of Eta:
The steering “players”: After moving steadily west/southwest & even a little south, Eta has turned around & is moving northeast. . As upper level high pressure to the east “softens” on its western edge while upper level troughing increases over the Central U.S., Eta will turn more north & northeast then turn rather sharply eastward favoring the red arrow below followed by the right hand turn. So Eta is taking the “red arrow” path. Complicated & interesting, maybe a little frustrating not to mention subject to change!
More spaghetti:
Eta technically developed on Oct. 31st but the map below will suffice & shows the Caribbean is a relative “hot bed” for late season/first 10 days of Nov. tropical cyclones:
Theta has formed over the East Atlantic - the record 29th storm of the season beating the record of 28 in the infamous year of 2005. Theta will stay over the Eastern Atlantic & is no threat to the U.S. . Early indications are that Theta will weaken over the Northeast Atlantic before reaching Europe.
Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:
Elsewhere... Another tropical wave moving into the Caribbean does have some longer range potential for gradual development. It appears this system would stay over/near the Caribbean (vs. turning north) as the disturbance moves toward the west & bends a little southwest.
Saharan dust, dry air:
2020 names..... “Wilfred” was the last name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18 & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list). Interesting side note: the last six of the names on the ’20 list had never been used. So it’s on to the Greek alphabet. "Iota” is next... the first time the Greek alphabet has been used since 2005 (total of 27 named storms using 6 Greek letter names in ’05). When & if Theta forms, it will break the record for the most Atlantic storms in a single season on record.
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Global tropical activity:
The West Pacific remains active with “Vamco” moving across the Philippines & eventually possibly Vietnam while weakening but would be the 7th tropical cyclone for Vietnam over the last couple of months causing more flooding:
The steering “players”: After moving steadily west/southwest & even a little south, Eta has turned around & is moving northeast. . As upper level high pressure to the east “softens” on its western edge while upper level troughing increases over the Central U.S., Eta will turn more north & northeast then turn rather sharply eastward favoring the red arrow below followed by the right hand turn. So Eta is taking the “red arrow” path. Complicated & interesting, maybe a little frustrating not to mention