Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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Impacts on Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. from disturbance ‘92-L’/”potential tropical cyclone 3:
* virtually none
* as the remnant low passes to the north & west by Sunday into Monday, tropical moisture will surge to the northeast across the local area resulting in an uptick in showers & t’storms & heavy rainfall.
* if traveling west on I-10 through the weekend.... & eventually north on I-75 & even I-95 through the Carolina’s by late in the weekend, be prepared for heavy rain & areas of flooding.
SYNOPSIS:
First of all realize that “potential tropical cyclone” simply means a tropical disturbance that may intensify into a depression &/or tropical storm.
Disturbed weather - disorganized convection - continues over the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. The weak & unorganized low pressure area has emerged cleanly over the Western Gulf. Due to shear out of the west, much of the strongest & heaviest convection (t’storms & rain) remains east of the low & this pattern will continue through the weekend - a system heavily weighted on its eastern side. Such a hybrid or subtropical-looking system is common early in the hurricane season. Overall, there’s not a lot of change to the thinking & forecast in what could become at least a tropical depression & maybe a low end tropical/subtropical storm by late Fri./Fri. night. This system will not be overly intense but will be an efficient rain-producer so flooding is the primary concern.
A Friday night/early Saturday landfall on the Louisiana coast is forecast - west of New Orleans. While winds won’t be particularly strong (as tropical systems go), there will be a lot of rain + the threat for isolated tornadoes & waterspouts from Louisiana to Mississippi, Alabama & the Western Florida Panhandle. If the system can remain organized long enough - & it appears this is a possibility - heavy rain & isolated tornadoes may continue into the weekend & early next week along & near the track of the low well into Alabama, Georgia & possibly the Carolina’s & even Virginia. Rainfall forecast maps show a “blob” of heavy rain along the Gulf coast nosing northward & well inland with more than a half a foot of rain possible from near New Orleans east to the Western Florida Panhandle.
While not as active as earlier this week, a few tropical waves continue to move west across the deep tropical Atlantic. No immediate development is expected....
Spaghetti model plots for ‘Invest 92′/potential tropical cyclone three:
Saharan dust. Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink - is extensive over especially the Central Atlantic. Such widespread dust is common early in the hurricane season:
2021 names..... “Claudette” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20). Last year - 2020 - had a record 30 named storms. The WMO decided beginning in 2021 that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened twice - 2005 & 2020). More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear which is widespread from the Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean eastward across much of the Atlantic:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content is slowly increasing across the SE Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:
Global tropical activity: