Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app
FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android
WATCH “Talking & Tracking the Tropics: The Science Behind the Season”
WATCH “Preparing for the Storm”
READ the First Alert Hurricane Center “Survival Guide”
***** ALWAYS CHECK & RE-CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST & UPDATES! *****
** Despite multiple areas to track, there will be no direct impacts for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. from any tropical systems through the holiday weekend **
TROPICS:
(1) Tropical depression #17 formed over the Eastern Atlantic Sunday & has been upgraded to tropical storm “Paulette”. The fastest ever to ’P’ easily beating the old record of Philippe Sept. 17, 2005. The large system will move steadily - but rather slowly - to the west/northwest over the open Atlantic this week into the weekend. Early indications are that the system will eventually gain enough latitude - by the weekend/early next week to end up being a recurve to the north & northeast. But still early on this & the exact “end game” will depend on the location & strength of the Bermuda High over the N. Atlantic & any upper level troughing over/near the Eastern/NE U.S.
(2) Tropical depression #18 was upgraded just off the coast of Africa & a tropical storm WARNING is in effect for the Cabo Verde (Cape Verde) Islands. This system should fairly quickly organize & strengthen into “Rene” but should fairly quickly turn more northward over the Eastern &/or Central Atlantic. Therefore, this one is expected to stay out over the Atlantic. There may eventually be some interaction with tropical storm Paulette.
(3) A long track but weak tropical wave will be over the Western Atlantic several hundred miles east/northeast of Jacksonville by Tue. moving W/NW. While void of much shower or t’storm activity at the moment, some slight development is possible - perhaps even a tropical depression - but there’s no indication - thanks to increasing shear to the west - this will become a significant storm while moving northeast of Jacksonville Wed. & into the Carolina’s shortly thereafter.
(4) Another active tropical wave will roll off Africa in the coming days. This one looks to move west at a lower latitude riding a narrow ridge on the underside of the the two tropical cyclones (Paulette/t.d. #18) to the north. This one will stay out over the open Atlantic initially but will be something to keep a close eye on next week.
(5) Also of interest is a buckle (dip) in the jet stream over the middle of the U.S. this week. This trough alone might help to serve up some tropical trouble somewhere relatively close to the U.S. though there’s nothing to lock onto right now. Some hints perhaps of low pressure trying to develop over the Western Gulf by the weekend or shortly thereafter.
Positioning of the upper level ridge this week is quite far to the north so the movement of tropical “activity” is slower than past weeks. There should be enough of a weakness for the first two systems to turn more northward in time but the ridge is expected to strengthen thereafter which could push system #3 more to the south & west implying a higher risk of land interaction..... eventually.
September is usually the most active month of the hurricane season:
Saharan dust:
2020 names..... “Rene” is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list. Interesting side note: none of the remaining names on the ’20 list have ever been used....
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content is impressive for the first couple weeks of Aug.:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Global tropical activity. It’s interesting to see two typhoons over the far W. Pacific. MIGHT be a hint regarding the movement of future Western Atlantic tropical activity.
WEST PACIFIC:
“Maysak” moved into South Korea Wed. as a high end Cat. 2 & has since become post-tropical while becoming absorbed with a strong nontropical low. Maysak was responsible for the sinking of a livestock cargo ship.
Weakening “Haishen” has moved into S. Korea & will continue northward: