Jacksonville, Fl. — THE TROPICS:
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Tropics threats/impacts for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: None.
The Atlantic Basin Overview:
The Atlantic hurricane season is June 1st through Nov. 30th.
The average date of the fourth named storm of the season is August 15th... first Atlantic hurricane avg. date is Aug. 11 (none this season so far).
Next on the Atlantic list: Dolly.
The African wave train remains active, but strong wind shear (aided by the strengthening El Nino) continues to overwhelm the Atlantic Basin for the most part, especially at more southern latitudes.
The NHC has highlighted a couple areas of orange - ‘medium chance’ for development - over the Atlantic:
(1) nontropical low pressure is well east & northeast of Bermuda over the Central Atlantic. Some brief tropical development is possible while the low moves slowly northward then accelerates to the northeast over the open North Atlantic this week.
(2) A tropical wave will move west off the coast of Africa Monday. Multiple forecast models latch onto this wave & strengthen it - to varying degrees - into a tropical cyclone while moving west/northwest. This wave may avoid the more hostile conditions & eventually develop.
As long as a softness in the Bermuda ridge remains in place, there is an alleyway over the West Atlantic that may very well take the wave northward in the longer range well to the east of the U.S., but it’s still early on this one. A weaker, more shallow system would likely move west/northwest at least a little longer.
‘Velocity potential anomalies’ below. “Rising” air (green lines) equates with an uptick in overall convection. With rising air, conditions are generally more favorable for tropical development. Where there are brown lines, the air is generally sinking & is often less conducive to tropical cyclones (though not impossible to have development).
The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH) * here *.
REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.
Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 6 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.
The map below shows the *average* time for a tropical wave coming off Africa to travel west & northwest. Only about 1 in 5 tropical waves - on average - become a tropical cyclone of some sort (depression/storm/hurricane):
Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):
August Atlantic tropical cyclone origins:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for August:
Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear). Shear is typically strong to start the hurricane season:
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we saw this with Beryl & Debby last year). It’s my personal opinion that there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July, & we are indeed seeing a large “blobs” of Saharan dust over the Central & Eastern Atlantic that’s thinning with westward extent but enough of it to make for hazy skies across the Caribbean & - at times - across parts of Florida.
2026 names..... “Dolly” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 (the last time this year’s list was used) ... Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 ... Ida in ‘21 ... Fiona & Ian in ‘22... no names were retired in ‘23 for the first time since 2014... Beryl, Helene & Milton in 2024 & Melissa in 2025). The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
Hurricane season climatology:
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear - typically the “enemy” of tropical systems:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & tropical Atlantic. Brighter colors = warmer temps.:
Sea surface temps.:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:
East & Central Pacific:
This basin will most likely be the generally more active area in ‘26 due to the anticipated El Nino.
“Iselle”:
Central Pacific:
Moke:
Lala will cross the dateline this week while weakening:
Hawaii satellite imagery:
Global tropical activity:
West Pacific:
“Saudel” forecast to make landfall on the coast of China by Friday but off its peak:
“Narra”:
“Atsani”: