Jacksonville, Fl. — THE TROPICS:
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Tropics threats/impacts for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: None.
The Atlantic Basin Overview:
The Atlantic hurricane season is June 1st through Nov. 30th.
The average date of the third named storm of the season is August 3rd... first Atlantic hurricane avg. date is Aug. 11.
Next on the Atlantic list: Cristobal.
There is an upper level low with perhaps some extra “juice” from a weak tropical wave that’s been ingested east of Jacksonville as of late Saturday & has been enhancing showers & t’storms & locally heavy rainfall along with a decent onshore wind from Ga. through the Carolina’s increasing the rip current risk. No tropical development is expected & the system will turn more north then northeast through Sunday & Monday. As the disturbance moves away, rainfall coverage will decrease over NE Fl./SE Ga.
The African wave train is cycling up - to be expected as we head toward the peak of the hurricane season. And as of Saturday afternoon, the NHC has highlighted two waves in particular.Whether or not any of these waves can develop let alone make it very far west is another thing.
(1) Wave 1 is over the Eastern Atlantic & steadily moving west. The lower latitude track will eventually take the wave toward & perhaps over the Caribbean by late in the upcoming week. This track will unfavorable for much development in the longer range as wind shear looks to be prohibitive. So no significant impacts are expected upon approach to the Caribbean.
(2) Wave 2 will come off the coast of Africa about Tuesday. A more north/northwest track gives this wave a better chance to thrive... at least somewhat. Having said that, it does appear there will be a break in the Bermuda High with one center rather far to the east & northeast over the Atlantic & a second building over the Southern/SE U.S. The break/softness over the Western Atlantic would allow for curvature to the north then northeast well east of the U.S. & Bahamas. It’s still early on this one, but it *seems unlikely at this point* that this wave would be able to make a full trans-Atlantic track. Stay tuned....
‘Velocity potential anomalies’ below. “Rising” air (green lines) equates with an uptick in overall convection. With rising air, conditions are generally more favorable for tropical development. Where there are brown lines, the air is generally sinking & is often less conducive to tropical cyclones (though not impossible to have development).
The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH) * here *.
REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.
Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 6 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.
The map below shows the *average* time for a tropical wave coming off Africa to travel west & northwest. Only about 1 in 5 tropical waves - on average - become a tropical cyclone of some sort (depression/storm/hurricane):
Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):
August Atlantic tropical cyclone origins:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for August:
Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear). Shear is typically strong to start the hurricane season:
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we saw this with Beryl & Debby last year). It’s my personal opinion that there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July, & we are indeed seeing a large “blobs” of Saharan dust over the Central & Eastern Atlantic that’s thinning with westward extent but enough of it to make for hazy skies across the Caribbean & - at times - across parts of Florida.
2026 names..... “Cristobal” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 (the last time this year’s list was used) ... Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 ... Ida in ‘21 ... Fiona & Ian in ‘22... no names were retired in ‘23 for the first time since 2014... Beryl, Helene & Milton in 2024 & Melissa in 2025). The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
Hurricane season climatology:
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear - typically the “enemy” of tropical systems:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & tropical Atlantic. Brighter colors = warmer temps.:
Sea surface temps.:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:
East & Central Pacific:
This basin will most likely be the generally more active area in ‘26 due to the anticipated El Nino.
Central Pacific:
Hawaii satellite imagery:
Global tropical activity:
West Pacific:
“Dolphin” will move ashore in China Sunday-Monday as a high end tropical storm or low end typhoon:
“Chan-hom” will impact Japan next week as a tropical storm: