Aug. 7, 2017 — Tropical storm "Franklin" over the W. Caribbean is headed for the Yucatan Peninsula Mon. night/early Tue. Tropical storm WARNING + hurricane WATCH for parts of the Yucatan Peninsula... tropical storm WATCH for upper coastal Belize including Belize City... only four other years have had 4 tropical storms by Aug. 6th - 1936, 1959, 2005 & 2012 (according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach).
Tropical storm "Franklin" will intensify through Mon. but land interaction Mon. night/Tue. -- Yucatan Peninsula -- should weaken the system before emerging over the Bay of Campeche. Given very warm ocean temps. + a low shear environment, re-intensification is likely as long as the circulation is not too disrupted over land. The 2nd landfall looks to be Wed. night/early Thu. on the coast of Mexico well south of Texas.
There will be NO impacts for Jacksonville or any of Florida.
A weaker system should go farther west largely steered by the low level trade winds. We still need to keep a wary eye on the longer term when conditions might be more favorable for stronger development (late this week into the weekend).
Meanwhile... an active tropical wave ('99-L') is struggling over the Central Atlantic. Global forecast models are now generally unanimous on this system failing to develop while turning northwest then north by the weekend a little east of Florida - as an "open" tropical wave.
Other tropical waves are now marching west from Africa as we enter the 6-8 week period when deep Cape (Cabo) Verde tropical systems become more common.
SE U.S.:
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Imagery below courtesy CIMMS continues shows the persistent stream of African Saharan dust (orange & red) over the E. Atlantic:
Water vapor imagery (strong nontropical upper low north of Puerto Rico):
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic shows the strong Bermuda high remains anchored over the Central Atlantic...
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Wind shear analysis (red is stronger shear):
The W. Pacific...... "Noru" is weakening over Japan after a Cat. 1 landfall Sunday. The storm will slowly move across the country through Tue.
"Noru":
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Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University updated his seasonal forecast Friday. He increased the total storm number by 1 with an active season still anticipated. If the forecast is accurate, we are in for an awfully active 2-3 months.
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