Harvey aiming for Texas with catastrophic flooding possible... disturbance near/over S. Florida & the Bahamas to impact the weekend - dangerous rip currents at area beaches spreading north up the U.S. east coast through next week......
"Harvey" continues to intensify upon approach to the Texas Coast in what may very well be the first major (Cat. 3+) hurricane to make a U.S. landfall since Cat. 3 "Wilma" slammed South Florida in Oct., 2005 - that's longest such stretch on record.
Landfall will occur Fri. night very near Corpus Christi. The exact location of the eye will be critical for Corpus as to the extent of damage, but it appears this will be a significant hit for the city where hurricanes hit an average of about once every 33 years. Harvey will slow & then just meander over South & SE Texas through the weekend which could result in more than 2 feet of rain! The center will move erratically & possibly drift back south over the weekend & could re-emerge over the extreme NW Gulf of Mexico for a time early next week before finally getting picked up by an upper level trough moving across the U.S. Some of the very heavy rain will extend at least as far east as Louisiana.
"Harvey" will stay far to the south & west of Florida so no impacts on Jacksonville or any of Fl.
Corpus Christi NWS Doppler radar loop:
Cool imager(!) from CIMMS, University of Wisconsin, Madison - Microwave radar-simulated imagery... click here for full definition. Most importantly - watch "Harvey" wrap up....
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Much closer to Florida.... a complex combination of an upper low & the remnants of tropical wave - '92L' - remain near & over parts of the Bahamas, S. Florida & the Fl. Straits with only a very slow drift to the north & northeast. The system will meander into the SW Atlantic near the Bahamas & over Florida through the weekend before emerging just east of Florida by late Sunday into early next week. While any development would be slow, this feature is something to closely watch. Shear will be lessening + the atmosphere will be becoming more moist, so there is some potential for a "better" environment late in the weekend & thereafter, so we'll have to monitor the progress & movement of the system. The "Buresh Bottom Line" is: stay tuned!... Always be prepared! The most likely scenario is one where the system becomes a tropical depression or tropical storm (or possibly subtropical) along the Fl. coast or just east of Florida then slowly moves north/northeast. How far out into the Atlantic this system goes is still unclear, & it's possible that the storm could hug the U.S. east coast as far north as at least the Mid Atlantic. But either way.... conditions appear to become quite favorable for "Irma" to form over the W. Atlantic.
Locally - for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga - the main impacts will be bands of heavy rain through the weekend that could cause localized flooding, gusty winds out of the east & northeast & a significant rip current risk at area beaches.
Radar imagery courtesy S. Florida Water Management District:
Model plots:
East Atlantic -- as we head into the peak of the Cabo (Cape) Verde season, waves are rolling west off Africa....
Wind shear analysis (red is stronger shear):
Water vapor imagery:
Imagery below courtesy CIMMS shows African Saharan dust (orange & red) with a plume of dry/stable air extending as far west as the Caribbean....
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
25 years ago Aug. 24th, Cat. 5 hurricane "Andrew" slammed South Florida then went on - as a weaker hurricane - to hit Louisiana. The hurricane still ranks as the 2nd costliest in U.S. history ("Katrina" most costly) & is still a top 5 - in dollars - U.S. natural disaster. I went to S. Florida to compile survivor stories in 2012 on the 20th "anniversary". One was about a family divided because of the delivery of their baby... the second was a family that took refuge in a restaurant walk-in freezer.
The NHC has compiled:
.... & what it was like to work at NHC through Andrew