June 1, 2017 — The 2017 hurricane season is underway! There are no areas of concern right now over most of the Atlantic Basin. A weak front looks to work its way southward next week into the Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic then stall which might be something to watch for possible low pressure development in a week to 10 days though forecast models are not showing much.
A tropical depression has formed in the far Eastern Pacific & is moving into Central Mexico where there will be heavy rain & flooding. Given the short time left before landfall, little significant strengthening will occur. The question is what happens to this system as it crosses Mexico then into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. Some forecast models show a remnant low pressure system emerging while others simply show the upper level reflection (disturbance). Given the weakness of the surface low + rugged terrain of Mexico, it would seem most plausible that the low level circulation will severely disrupted leaving little more than a lot of tropical moisture moving into the Gulf accompanied by heavy t'storms. But this will be something to track in the coming days.
The new experimental NHC product is below for the tropical depression moving into Mexico - forecast arrival times of the strongest winds:
Below is the list of names for the 2017 Atlantic season. Arlene was already named - in April over the E. Atlantic - so "Bret" is next.
Seasonal forecasts from NOAA & Colorado St. (Klotzbach):