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Sept. 12th — HURRICANE IRMA: Latest updates, shelter info, evacuation info
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Irma is moving away from Jacksonville & all of Florida. Southwest winds on the underside of the disturbance will draw generally drier air over Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. so a mix of sun & clouds, just a few sprinkles & generally lighter winds.
Jacksonville N.W.S. Doppler radar:
Hurricane Irma made the turn to the northwest & now north after ravaging the Keys. Ft. Myers & much of Florida. this is the first "major" Fl. hurricane landfall since Cat. 3 "Wilma" in Oct., 2005 (Twitter did not yet exist!)...
The "Buresh Bottom Line" is: stay tuned!... Always be prepared!..... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
The last advisory by the NHC on "Irma" was Tue. morning as the storm has become post tropical. The low pressure area will continue to spin itself out over the Tennessee Valley. Overall conditions will continue to improve for NE Fl./SE Ga. as each high tide cycle gradually gets lower for the rest of the week. But some flooding at high tide + residual standing water will continue to be a concern. 'First Alert'! at area beaches where a high risk of rip currents will continue.
SUNRISE: ~7:10 AM .... SUNSET: ~7:35 PM
IRMA BY THE NUMBERS:
- 185 mph winds (Cat. 5) for 37 hours is a record for any tropical cylcone on earth
- a hurricane for 12 days with first NHC advisory Aug. 30th & last one on Sept. 12th
- a Cat. 3 or stronger for 8.5 days - 2nd longest on record (Ivan, 2004 - also hit Fl. [Panhandle])
- 1st Cat. 5 to hit the Bahamas since 1992 (Andrew) - 3rd straight year that a Cat. 3 or stronger hurricane has it the Bahamas
- Strongest hurricane ever to hit any part of the Leeward Islands
- most severe flood on the St. Johns River, Jacksonville since at least 1854
- 1st Cat. 5 to hit Cuba since 1924
- 10th lowest pressure (914mb) on record
Irma remnant low / upper level system over Southern U.S..... "Jose" over W. Atlantic.....
"Irma" model plots:
Wave forecast:.
NOAA WaveWatch III below predicated on GFS model - will change & update - hit refresh for latest + loop:
"Jose" followed by another disturbance to the east....
Very warm ocean water persists:
Deep oceanic heat content is still very evident - especially over the Caribbean & Gulf. We will have more tropical troubles before the season is over.
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Jose:
.... became a "major" hurricane last week but is feeling the effects of southwesterly shear... & will languish in the "backwash" of Irma & itslef for many days. I'm still not certain this simply stays out to sea so bears watching in the long run - 5-8 days - for a loop out of which it moves northwest initially. But a building high to the north has to be considered that would cause a possible move more west in the long range. I do not see "Jose" moving into Fl.. Indications are that "Jose" will turn northward far to the east of Florida missing the Southeast U.S. coast but the upper east coast is not necessarily out of the woods yet. An easterly swell will reach Northeast Fl./SE Ga. beaches through the weekend.
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East Atlantic IR satellite shows another strong tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS):
The main development region (MDR) remains above avg. temps. - in fact - only 2005 & 2010 were warmer. The deep warm ocean water can "energize" tropical cyclones:
SE U.S. surface map - cold front is part of the equation for where Irma goes....
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
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Caribbean:
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