June 28, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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The "globe" remains generally quiet in what has been a remarkably low ACE (accumulated cyclone energy" worldwide over the last couple of months. There is now one tropical cyclone that has developed over the Eastern Pacific with another one likely to follow.
A look at the velocity potential anomalies does show "upward motion" (green lines) - though not overly strong - over the Pacific which is likely helping the tropical development. The upshot is that this upward motion will likely "ooze" into the Atlantic Basin for parts of July & could spark the first development of the Atlantic season (other than brief Andrea in May). Something to keep an eye on.
A rather large upper low is over & near Cuba helping to generate some disorganized shower & t'storm activity. No surface development is expected.
2019 names..... "Andrea" was briefly upgraded in May. Next on the list: "Barry" (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):
Atlantic Basin:
East Atlantic:
There is a disturbance over the far Eastern Atlantic, but it's early in the season for development so deep over the tropics.
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There may be tropical development off the coast of Mexico over the E. Pacific but any system would continue to move W/NW away from land.
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:
The Atlantic Basin.....
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content:
Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water over the Caribbean & the deep tropical development region of the Atlantic..... for now:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
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Caribbean:
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In the E. Pacific.... tropical storm Alvin briefly became a hurricane Thu. (first of the E. Pacific season) & is well west of Mexico & well south of the Baja of California. The system will move northwest away from any significant land areas before encountering hostile conditions over the weekend. Another disturbance is several hundred miles to the southeast & has the potential to develop but also while moving away from Mexico.
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