Oct. 3, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
STAY INFORMED: Get the (free) First Alert Weather app
Leslie has turned hurricane while spending the week moving very slowly over the Central Atlantic making a gradual curl before heading north then northeast & even east by the weekend. The storm's swell will affect the Florida coastline & much of the U.S. east coast through much of the week & - when combined with onshore flow - result in a high rip current risk at area beaches. Otherwise Leslie will stay far away from any land areas.
A cluster of strong convection persists over the Caribbean. Broad low pressure has developed but t'storm activity lacks much organization & there is a fair amount of mid & upper level shear at the moment. Tropical development over the Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic appears probable next week but the end result is still - as one would expect at this early juncture - far from certain.
Atlantic Basin:
The overall pattern through the first two weeks of Oct. will favor tropical development over the Atlantic Basin. The velocity potential anomaly map below indicates expansive green lines - upward motion - spreading from the E. Pacific into the Atlantic Basin, part of a MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) pulse. While tropical development could occur just about anywhere, it would appear we especially need to be vigilant of the Caribbean &/or Southwest Atlantic from approximately Oct. 6 through the 16th.
The area of concern matches up with the "hot spots" for Oct. tropical cyclone genesis (development):
CIMMS satellite below shows the extent of dry air but also indicates it doesn't necessarily shut down the basin. Note the considerable dry air between Leslie & Florida which will help to shut down widespread rainfall for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. through Friday/Saturday.
E. Atlantic:
0
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
1
The Atlantic Basin....
Caribbean:
Gulf of Mexico:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air) - notice the dry air spinning into Leslie:
Deep oceanic heat content is seasonably high over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic as one would expect early in the fall....
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
0
Caribbean:
1
The E. Pacific remains active....
"Sergio" is strengthening well offshore of Mexico, far to the south of the Baja & will turn northwest over open water through late week then veer back to the west.
2
3