Talking the Tropics With Garrett: “96-L” stays out to sea, Area to watch in W. Atlantic

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Central Atlantic... A tropical wave, “96-L,” continues to move northwest across the Central Atlantic. Showers and storms have increased since Saturday. However, they remain disorganized as of Sunday morning. It looks like this tropical wave will at least try to become a tropical depression or tropical storm early this week over the open waters of the Central Atlantic. Our First Alert forecast continues to keep this feature well away from land. There will be a weakness in a ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic. This, in conjunction with an upper-level trough over Northeast U.S., will help keep 96-L well east of Bermuda.

Western Atlantic... An upper trough of low pressure that was over our area on Friday (the TUTT low), has emerged off the Carolina coastline. A surface area of low pressure may try to develop over the next day or two as it moves northeast away from land. No local threats from what has been deemed “97-L.”

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

July tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for August:

Wind shear:

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2023 names..... “Emily” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.