"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Active Atlantic basin continues - Sept. 17th

Sept. 17, 2016 — "Julia" well east/northeast of Jacksonville...  tropical storm "Karl" far E. Atlantic... strong wave moving off Africa....

Nothing "off the table" from a forecasting standpoint given the kind of season we've seen so far not to mention the model mayhem.  My point: we cannot necessarily write off "Julia"....  & "Karl" is not necessarily a certain recurve.

JUST PAST THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON...  You should always be prepared & aware.  First Alert Hurricane Center ** here **.  Reminder that flood insurance policies take 30 days to take effect..... & will not be written when/if a named storm is nearby.

Tropical cyclone "Julia" -- born from a long track tropical wave & officially upgraded near Jacksonville Tue. evening -- is meandering well offshore 300+ miles east of Jacksonville.  Shear had all but decapitated "Juila" Friday but convection has again fired near the center Saturday.   The shear will not be relaxing until at least late Mon./Tue. so survival is far from certain.  But I have a suspicion that "Julia" is going to hang around for a while.  It seems the system will not be picked by mid latitude troughs of low pressure that will be lifting out through the Central & Eastern U.S.  If that's the case,  "Julia" could very well stay couched near the Gulf Stream with very warm water & the big question being how much shear remains in the vicinity.  There will be few if any local impacts for Jax through the early week, but we'll have to keep an eye on "Julia" & how much the system can survive over the next several days.  Afterall... "Julia" has had a "persistent & unique character" during its lifespan.

Tropical cyclone "Karl" continues to march westward but is struggling against strong shear.  A steady movement to the west, even southwest through some pretty harsh conditions (shear + dry air) will continue through the weekend with some question as to whether or not the system can survive or at least thrive -- in the SHORT term.  The more shallow this system remains, the better chance it ends up farther west in the long run.  In addition -- an important nugget to keep in the back of our mind -- forecast models as a whole this season have often been too far east or too early in other words - with recurvature.  So we have a couple of significant considerations while tracking & forecasting "Karl".  There are indications that conditions over the SW Atlantic by the middle of next week could be quite favorable for strengthening.  Still very early on this one & there will be no land impacts through the weekend into at least the middle of next week, if ever.  Forecast models have been very inconsistent but that's not surprising since we're in the early stages on "Karl" not to mention that the models have been struggling with tropical cyclones a good part of this season.

0

Water vapor imagery below shows a good deal of dry air over the Central Atlantic which could interfere with the intensification of "Karl".

1

The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis shows strong shear over "Julia".

A disturbance over the NW Gulf of Mexico but proximity to land should limit development:

East Atlantic:

Satellite imagery centered on Africa & the far E. Atlantic shows tropical waves lined up across the E. Atlantic & Africa - pretty classic for this time of year.  The wave moving off Africa will likely become a tropical cyclone but should turn northward pretty early.  Yet another wave will move off Africa in a few days.

Lots of warm water to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equates to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average:

0

Quick look at the Western Pacific.... typhoon "Malakas" -- the 2nd in this area of the world within just a few days -- the worst of which stayed just east of typhoon-wary Taiwan will recurve toward Japan next week but as a weakening system.....

1

2

Cox Media Group