"Talking the Tropics With Mike": "Hermine" near U.S. east coast - Sept. 3rd

Sept. 3, 2016 — "Hermine" - a menace for the U.S. east coast............

Cat. 1  landfall on the Southeast Panhandle & Big Bend area of Florida just east of St. Marks between 1 & 1:30am Friday.  This was the first hurricane hit on Florida since "Wilma" in Oct., 20015.... & the first hit on the Panhandle since "Ivan" in Sept., 2004.

WE'RE APPROACHING THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON.  You should always be prepared & aware.  First Alert Hurricane Center ** here **.  Reminder that flood insurance policies take 30 days to take effect..... & will not be written when/if a named storm is nearby.

Local -- Jax/NE Fl./SE Ga. -- impacts from "Hermine":

..... none as the storm moves away.  A "wake trough" left behind will help to focus heavy rain & storms across NE Fl. & SE Ga. through Sunday with the potential for at least several inches of rain before showers & storms become more scattered for Labor Day.  Peak wind gusts Fri. from our Ja N.W.S.:

Public Information Statement

National Weather Service Jacksonville FL

303 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2016 

...Updated Peak Wind Gust Reports from Selected Observations...         

...Florida... 

...Alachua County...

Gainesville Regional Airport 51 MPH    0338 AM 09/02   ASOS                

5 SE Alachua                 40 MPH    1218 AM 09/02   CWOP                 

...Baker County...

5 W Maxville                 45 MPH    0843 AM 09/02   CWOP                 

...Bradford County...

Keystone Heights Airport     41 MPH    0835 AM 09/02   AWOS                 

...Clay County...

3 ESE Green Cove Springs     34 MPH    0718 AM 09/02   NOS-NWLON            

...Columbia County...

Lake City Municipal Airport  43 MPH    0215 AM 09/02   AWOS                 

...Duval County...

Jacksonville Nas             52 MPH    0445 AM 09/02   ASOS                

1 E Fort Caroline            52 MPH    0918 AM 09/02   WXFLOW              

1 NNE Orange Park            51 MPH    0406 AM 09/02   NOS-NWLON           

Jacksonville Intl Airport    51 MPH    1134 AM 09/02   ASOS                

Mayport Naval Station        51 MPH    0802 AM 09/02   ASOS                

Craig Municipal Airport      46 MPH    0921 AM 09/02   ASOS                 

1 W Arlington                41 MPH    0740 AM 09/02   WXFLOW              

...Flagler County...

Marineland                   52 MPH    0603 AM 09/02   CWOP                 

...Marion County...

Ocala Airport - Jim Taylor F 45 MPH    0415 AM 09/02   AWOS                 

...Nassau County...

Fernandina Beach Municipal A 46 MPH    1235 PM 09/02   AWOS                 

...Putnam County...

Palatka Airport              44 MPH    0615 AM 09/02   AWOS                 

...St. Johns County...

St Augustine Airport         46 MPH    0629 AM 09/02   AWOS                

1 NW Saint Augustine         42 MPH    0929 AM 09/02   WXFLOW              

2 E Durbin                   40 MPH    0911 AM 09/02   CWOP                 

...Suwannee County...

Suwannee County Airport      37 MPH    0235 AM 09/02   AWOS                

...Georgia... 

...Appling County...

Baxley Municipal Airport     40 MPH    0835 AM 09/02   AWOS                 

...Bacon County...

Bacon County Airport         45 MPH    0847 AM 09/02   ASOS                 

...Camden County...

3 WSW Kingsland              31 MPH    0600 AM 09/02   CWOP                

...Charlton County...

1 WNW Steven Foster State Pa 46 MPH    0701 AM 09/02   RAWS                

11 NNW Steven Foster State P 44 MPH    0710 AM 09/02   RAWS                 

...Clinch County...

Homerville Airport           51 MPH    0715 AM 09/02   AWOS                 

...Coffee County...

Douglas Municipal Airport    38 MPH    0635 AM 09/02   AWOS                

...Glynn County...

Malcolm Mc Kinnon Airport    53 MPH    1152 AM 09/02   ASOS                

Brunswick Golden Isles Airpo 51 MPH    1055 AM 09/02   AWOS                 

...Jeff Davis County...

Hazlehurst Airport           32 MPH    0435 AM 09/02   AWOS                 

...Ware County...

Waycross-ware County Municip 56 MPH    0815 AM 09/02   AWOS                

2 W Deenwood                 55 MPH    0904 AM 09/02   RAWS                 

...Wayne County...

Jesup-wayne County Airport   45 MPH    0855 AM 09/02   AWOS                 

...Florida...

...Maritime Stations...

1 NNE Jacksonville Beach     54 MPH    1019 AM 09/02   WXFLOW              

2 N Mayport                  52 MPH    1028 AM 09/02   WXFLOW

Once Cat. 1 "Hermine" is weakening upon moving inland having lost its source of "energy" -- the warm ocean water.  The storm is re-emerging over the Western Atlantic not far from Chesapeake Bay & there is some chance the storm could regain tropical characteristics after transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone while inland & near the coast.  "Hermine" will bend back W/NW to at least very near the coast south & southeast of New York City through midweek before getting pushed back to the northeast upon the approach of an upper level trough.  Major storm surge is forecast to occur over parts of the Mid Atlantic & Southern New England.

NHC forecast below for the chance of storm surge greater or equal to 3 feet.... ** NEW ** products availabe! -- interactive potential storm surge (inundation [how many feet above ground]) probabilities ** here **...... prototype interactive storm surge watch/warning graphic ** here **.

Model forecasts "Hermine":

NOAA WaveWatch III (refresh for loop):

Meanwhile... a tropical wave that came off the coast of Africa last weekend is speeding toward the Eastern Caribbean.  This wave struggled with a lot of dry air initially but has started to come to life - something to keep an eye on for next week through next week with increasingly favorable conditions over the far Western Caribbean &/or Western Gulf of Mexico.  Indications are that this wave will move through the Caribbean staying well south of Florida.

Water vapor imagery below shows a lot of dry air over the Central Atlantic which could interrupt development -- for a while -- of waves moving west off Africa.....

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Wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear).  Strong shear has arrested the development of the wave approaching the Eastern Caribbean stretching out the wave west to east.  Once west of this shear axis, organization of the wave will be possible.

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7-day rainfall model forecast:

Gulf of Mexico:

East Atlantic:

Satellite imagery centered on Africa & the far E. Atlantic shows tropical waves lined up across the E. Atlantic & Africa - pretty classic for this time of year.  At least the first half of September is looking busy for the Atlantic Basin & it's within the realm of possibility that at least two named storms could make U.S. landfall between now & mid Sept. ("Hermine" the first).   Global models have -- for now -- slowed the development of the wave not to mention -- no surprise (!) -- shown a lack of any real consistency. Lots of dry air will likely limit much development until west of at least the half way point of the Atlantic Ocean.  Moral of the story: don't snooze on these waves!  Some forecast models show a powerful hurricane later next week near or over the SW Atlantic -- something to keep an eye on but certainly nothing to really "jump on" for right now.

Lots of warm water to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equates to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

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Over the Central Pacific,  "Lester" will approach Hawaii this weekend but the storm is weakening & will likely turn more northward while approaching Hawaii.  Relatively minor impacts are expected for the Islands.

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Cox Media Group