"Talking the Tropics With Mike": "Hermine" weakening over land - Sept. 2nd

Sept. 2, 2016 — "Hermine" weakening over land & moving away............

The Cat. 1 storm made landfall on the Southeast Panhandle & Big Bend area of Florida just east of St. Marks between 1 & 1:30am. This was the first hurricane hit on Florida since "Wilma" in Oct., 20015.... & the first hit on the Panhandle since "Ivan" in Sept., 2004.

WE'RE APPROACHING THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON. You should always be prepared & aware. First Alert Hurricane Center ** here **. Reminder that flood insurance policies take 30 days to take effect..... & will not be written when/if a named storm is nearby.

Local -- Jax/NE Fl./SE Ga. -- impacts from "Hermine":

Impacts will lessen through the day Fri. as "Hermine" moves away from the First Coast:

** winds will slowly subside through the day into especially the evening

** rain directly associated with the tropical cyclone will be ending but a surface trough of low pressure left in the wake of "Hermine" could help trigger some heavy rain & storms later Fri./Fri. night.

** rough seas & surf, potentially dangerous rip currents at area beaches will only slowly improve. Surfers will no doubt enjoy the cleaner offshore wind Friday but beware of the dangerous marine & beach conditions!

** new moon phase arrived Thu. Sept. 1 so tides will have some astronomical input. Expect higher than average tides for an extended time - both at the beaches as well as along the St. Johns River & its tributaries causing localized flooding + beach erosion.

Once Cat. 1 "Hermine" is weakening upon moving inland having lost its source of "energy" -- the warm ocean water. The storm will re-emerge over the Western Atlantic not far from Chesapeake Bay by Sunday & there is some chance the storm could regain tropical characteristics after transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone while inland. There may be some impacts -- maybe even a 2nd landfall(?!) near New England by the middle of next week.

NHC forecast below for the chance of storm surge greater or equal to 3 feet.... ** NEW ** products availabe! -- interactive potential storm surge (inundation [how many feet above ground]) probabilities ** here **...... prototype interactive storm surge watch/warning graphic ** here **.

Model forecasts "Hermine":

Radar imagery below courtesy the S. Florida Water Management District:

Surface map:

NOAA WaveWatch III (refresh for loop):

Meanwhile... a tropical wave that came off the coast of Africa last weekend is speeding toward the Northeast Caribbean/Southwest Atlantic. This wave struggled with a lot of dry air initially but has started to come to life - something to keep an eye on for next week!

Water vapor imagery below shows a lot of dry air over the Central Atlantic which could interrupt development -- for a while -- of waves moving west off Africa.....

Wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear):

7-day rainfall model forecast:

The strong wave that moved off the coast of Africa more than a week ago & became tropical depression #7 last Monday and is now "Gaston" .... briefly intensified into a hurricane overnight Wed./early Thu. & is now back to hurricane strength becoming the first "major" (Cat. 3) hurricane of the Atlantic season late Sunday will become an extratropical low over the far E/NE Atlantic:

East Atlantic:

Satellite imagery centered on Africa & the far E. Atlantic shows tropical waves lined up across the E. Atlantic & Africa - pretty classic for this time of year. At least the first half of September is looking busy for the Atlantic Basin & it's within the realm of possibility that at least two named storms could make U.S. landfall between now & mid Sept. ("Hermine" the first). Global models have -- for now -- slowed the development of the wave not to mention -- no surprise (!) -- shown a lack of any real consistency. Lots of dry air will likely limit much development until west of at least the half way point of the Atlantic Ocean. Moral of the story: don't snooze on these waves!

Lots of warm water to help "feed" tropical cyclones. Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equates to 82 degrees Fahrenheit. Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Over the East Pacific, "Madeline" is moving away from Hawaii where damage generally was not severe. Yet a second tropical cyclone -- "Lester" will approach Hawaii by the weekend.