"Talking the Tropics With Mike": "Julia" forms near Jacksonville - Sept. 13th

Sept. 13, 2016 — Tropical wave near Florida spawns "Julia" near Jacksonville...  "Ian" over the open water of the Central Atlantic....

AT THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON...  You should always be prepared & aware.  First Alert Hurricane Center ** here **.  Reminder that flood insurance policies take 30 days to take effect..... & will not be written when/if a named storm is nearby.

The active tropical wave moving near Florida has spawned "Julia" very near Jacksonville.  The storm is heavily weighted on the north & east side so conditions are pretty benign south & west of the center.  The heaviest rain & strongest winds -- along with an isolated tornado threat -- will be over Nassau Co., Fl. & SE Ga. through early Wed. with winds & rain rather rapidly diminishing from south to north.  VIRTUALLY ALL ESSENTIAL SERVICES -- INCLUDING SCHOOLS -- SHOULD BE ABLE TO OPERATE NORMALLY WED.  The center is not expected to move over water anytime soon so no significant strengthening is likely to occur.  A few downed trees & power line damage will occur near & east of I-95 but widespread significant damage is not expected.

Radar imagery below courtesy South Florida Water Management District:

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Water vapor imagery below shows the dry air over the Western Gulf of Mexico + a large area of dry air over the Central Atlantic interrupted by a developing tropical cyclone.

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The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis shows pockets of strong wind shear are scattered throughout the Atlantic Basin & are playing a role in keeping the waves east & west of Florida from organizing much.... with a large area of shear from the Caribbean northeastward into the Central Atlantic.

Gulf of Mexico:

East Atlantic:

Satellite imagery centered on Africa & the far E. Atlantic shows tropical waves lined up across the E. Atlantic & Africa - pretty classic for this time of year.  Long range global forecast models have been inconsistent on development & movement - no surprise!

Meanwhile... the MJO -- Madden-Julian Oscillation -- was in a favorable state the last week to 10 days, but the pulse (2nd image below) has all but suddenly collapsed.  General rising air (green lines) often times favors tropical development..... especially when all other things (shear, moisture, etc) are equal.  Brown lines show general sinking air which has now spread across much of the Eastern Pacific & Western Atlantic Basin.  Such a state doesn't preclude tropical development, but the general sinking air could at least limit the number of systems that might try to develop.  We'll likely see some additional quick turn-arounds in the state of the MJO in the coming weeks.

"Ian" has formed -- as expected --  over the Central Atlantic & will be an early recurve with the turn to the north already underway.  The tropical cyclone will even stay well east of Bermuda so no impacts on any of the U.S.

An active tropical wave is over the far Eastern Atlantic.  This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone while it moves west/northwest.  The key on how far west this system goes could very well end up tied to its intensity.  A weaker & slower to develop system would probably manage to get farther west.  Plenty of time to see how this one might play out.

Lots of warm water to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equates to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average:

Quick look at the Western Pacific.... Heads-up for Taiwan & surrounding areas as typhoon - "Meranti" -  steadily marches W/NW with the potential for a significant hit on the island nation by Wed.  Impressive! satellite imagery below.....

Cox Media Group