"Talking the Tropics With Mike": "Julia" hanging on! - Sept. 18th

Sept. 18, 2016 — "Julia" hanging on well northeast of Jacksonville...  tropical storm "Karl" headed for Central Atlantic... strong wave moving off Africa....

Nothing "off the table" from a forecasting standpoint given the kind of season we've seen so far not to mention the model mayhem.  My point: we cannot necessarily write off "Julia"....  & "Karl" is not necessarily a certain recurve.

JUST PAST THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON...  You should always be prepared & aware.  First Alert Hurricane Center ** here **.  Reminder that flood insurance policies take 30 days to take effect..... & will not be written when/if a named storm is nearby.

Tropical cyclone "Julia" -- born from a long track tropical wave & officially upgraded near Jacksonville last Tue. evening -- is meandering well offshore 300+ miles northeast of Jacksonville with pulses of t'storm activity.  Shear is still a major problem but has become from the north so t'storms are generally getting pushed to the south & southeast of the center which is still very identifiable.   The shear will relax some late Mon./Tue. & if "Julia" can hang on that long, some restrengthening is possible.  Some extra umph from the Gulf Stream could (& probably already has) factor into the equation as well.  A stronger/deeper system would probably turn northward while a weaker system could move more west.  Heavy rain will be the biggest threat for mainly the Carolina's.  So  "Julia" continues its "persistent & unique character" which begain nearly a week ago.

Tropical cyclone "Karl" continues to march westward but is struggling mightily against strong shear.  A steady movement to the west, even southwest through some pretty harsh conditions (shear + dry air) will continue into Monday with some question as to whether or not the system can survive or at least thrive -- in the SHORT term.  The more shallow this system remains, the better chance it ends up farther west in the long run as models have slowly been trending west... probably because of the weak nature of "Karl".  In addition -- an important nugget to keep in the back of our mind -- forecast models as a whole this season have often been too far east or too early in other words - with recurvature.  So we have a couple of significant considerations while tracking & forecasting "Karl".  There are indications that conditions over the SW Atlantic by the middle of the upcoming week could be quite favorable for strengthening.  Still early on this one & there will be no land impacts through at least the middle of next week, if ever.  Forecast models are generally pretty insistent on a full recurve for  "Karl", but the longer the cyclone stays weak, the more west the system is likely to get.  Not to mention that the models have been struggling with tropical cyclones a good part of this season.

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Water vapor imagery below shows a good deal of dry air over the Central Atlantic which has been limiting the intensification of "Karl".

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The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis shows strong shear gradually shifting away from "Julia".

Gulf of Mexico:

East Atlantic:

Satellite imagery centered on Africa & the far E. Atlantic shows tropical waves continuing to move westward - pretty classic for this time of year.  The wave moving off Africa will likely become a tropical cyclone but should turn northward pretty early.  Yet another wave will move off Africa in a few days.

Lots of warm water to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equates to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average:

Over the E. Pacific..... tropical storm "Paine" has developed southwest of the Baja of California.  Incredibly - the 16th named storm in this part of the world in just 10 weeks.  While the storm will likely stay west of the Baja & eventually weaken in the long run, tropical moisture is likely to surge northward into Southern California & Arizona & could result in heavy rain.

Quick look at the Western Pacific.... well developed typhoon "Malakas" -- the 2nd in this area of the world in the past week -- the worst of which stayed just east of typhoon-wary Taiwan will recurve toward Japan next week but as a weakening system.....

Cox Media Group