"Talking the Tropics With Mike": "Julia" + "Karl" updates - Sept. 16th

Sept. 16, 2016 — "Julia" well east/northeast of Jacksonville...  tropical storm "Karl" far E. Atlantic... "Ian" becoming extratropical....

JUST PAST THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON...  You should always be prepared & aware.  First Alert Hurricane Center ** here **.  Reminder that flood insurance policies take 30 days to take effect..... & will not be written when/if a named storm is nearby.

Tropical cyclone"Julia" -- born from a long track tropical wave & officially upgraded near Jacksonville Tue. evening -- is meandering well offshore 300+ miles east/northeast of Jacksonville.  The storm is still heavily weighted on the north & east side so conditions are pretty benign south & west of the center but hurricane hunter aircraft late Thu. indicated sustained winds of 40 mph so "Julia" was again deemed a tropical storm.  The circulation, however, is far from the t'storm activity as west/northwesterly shear continues.  "Julia" will just meander while slowly weakening though we'll have to watch closely since the poorly organized center could jump around some & could get a little south of the highest shear over some very warm water.  Afterall... "Julia" has had a "persistent & unique character" during its lifespan.  At this point, I suspect "Julia" stays well east of Jacksonville.

Tropical depression #12 over the far E. Atlantic has become "Karl".  A steady movement west/northwest through some pretty harsh conditions (shear + dry air) through the weekend with some question as to whether or not the system can survive or at least thrive -- in the SHORT term.  The more shallow this system remains, the better chance it ends up farther west in the long run.  In addition -- an important nugget to keep in the back of our mind -- forecast models as a whole this season have been too far east - often with recurvature.  So we have a couple of significant considerations while tracking & forecasting "Karl".  There are indications that conditions over the SW Atlantic by the middle of next week could be quite favorable for strengthening.  Still very early on this one & there will be no land impacts through the weekend into at least the middle of next week, if ever.

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Water vapor imagery below shows a good deal of dry air over the Central Atlantic which could interfere with the intensification of "Karl".

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The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis shows strong shear over "Julia".

Gulf of Mexico:

East Atlantic:

Satellite imagery centered on Africa & the far E. Atlantic shows tropical waves lined up across the E. Atlantic & Africa - pretty classic for this time of year.  Long range global forecast models have been inconsistent on development & movement - no surprise!  The next potentially named system is already moving off Africa & will be followed by another one in about 5 days.

"Ian" is moving into the North Atlantic - no impacts on any land areas & cooler water + interaction with a another storm over the N. Atlantic will help transition the storm to a rather intense extratropical low.

Lots of warm water to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equates to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average:

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Quick look at the Western Pacific.... typhoon "Malakas" -- the 2nd in this area of the world within just a few days -- will become a strong typhoon & is forecast to move near or just east of typhoon-wary Taiwan then recurve toward Japan as a weakening system by then.....

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Cox Media Group