"Talking the Tropics With Mike": "Julia" off S. Carolina/Ga. coast - Sept. 15th

Sept. 15, 2016 — "Julia" well north of Jacksonville...  tropical depression #12 far E. Atlantic... "Ian" weakening while moving into the N. Atlantic....

NEAR THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON...  You should always be prepared & aware.  First Alert Hurricane Center ** here **.  Reminder that flood insurance policies take 30 days to take effect..... & will not be written when/if a named storm is nearby.

Tropical cyclone"Julia" -- born from a long track tropical wave -- is crawling northeast off the coast of S. Carolina/Georgia several hundred miles northeast of Jacksonville.  The storm is still heavily weighted on the north & east side so conditions are pretty benign south & west of the center which includes Jax/NE Fl./SE Ga.   The storm will not likely "escape" to the north & east but rather will stall or even drift a bit back west or southwest over the next several days.  Gradual weakening should continue despite the center residing over water & not far from the Gulf Stream as "Julia" is on the southern edge of strong shear.  We still will need to watch how "Julia" moves/behaves in case the center gets far enough south of the shear + stays over water allowing the tropical cyclone to maintain itself or even intensify.... especially given the "strong & unique character" of the system this week.

"Julia" reminded me of tropical storm "Tammy" in October during the infamous 2005 hurricane season.  "Tammy" developed very near the coast of Jacksonville dropping a half foot or more of rain near the beaches while next to nothing fell west of I-95.  With "Julia" the last couple days.... rainfall has ranged from just more than 6" at St. Simons Island.... to near 1.5" at JIA... to just spotty local downpours farther to the west & south.  Peak wind gusts were 50+ mph at the coast but there were no sustained tropical storm force winds over land.  Damage on the First Coast was minor with a few downed trees & a few power outages.

Radar imagery below courtesy South Florida Water Management District:

Tropical depression #12 formed over the far E. Atlantic Wed. & could become "Karl".  A steady movement west/northwest through some pretty harsh conditions (shear + dry air) the rest of this week with some question as to whether or not the system can survive.  It's possible that #12 could degenerate into an open wave then POSSIBLY try to rejuvenate farther to the west.  Still very early on this one & there will be no land impacts through at least the weekend.

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Water vapor imagery below shows a good deal of dry air over the Central Atlantic which could interfere with the development of t.d. #12.

The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis shows strong shear over "Julia".

Gulf of Mexico:

East Atlantic:

Satellite imagery centered on Africa & the far E. Atlantic shows tropical waves lined up across the E. Atlantic & Africa - pretty classic for this time of year.  Long range global forecast models have been inconsistent on development & movement - no surprise!  But at least 1, possibly 2 new named storms have a good chance of being born within the next week or so.

"Ian" remains over the Central Atlantic & is moving northward over the open Atlantic - no impacts on any land areas & cooler water + shear & dry air will help weaken the storm.

Lots of warm water to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equates to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average:

Quick look at the Western Pacific.... typhoon "Meranti" has moved inland over China & will dissipate... but "Malakas" will become a strong typhoon & is forecast to move just east of typhoon-wary Taiwan then recurve toward Japan as a weakening system by then.....

Cox Media Group