"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Landfall early Fri. - Sept. 2nd

Sept. 2, 2016 — Tropical storm WARNING for Jacksonville, all of Northeast Florida & Southeast Ga..... Hurricane WARNING Fl. Big Bend/SE Panhandle... Tropical storm WARNING Central Fl. Panhandle/Big Bend... to just south of Tampa..........

"Hermine" became a hurricane early in the afternoon Thu.  The Cat. 1 storm made landfall on the Southeast Panhandle & Big Bend area of Florida just east of St. Marks between 1 & 1:30am.  This was the first hurricane hit on Florida since "Wilma" in Oct., 20015.... & the first hit on the Panhandle since "Ivan" in Sept., 2004.

WE'RE APPROACHING THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON.  You should always be prepared & aware.  First Alert Hurricane Center ** here **.  Reminder that flood insurance policies take 30 days to take effect..... & will not be written when/if a named storm is nearby.  NOW is a good time to secure &/or bring inside any objects that might become air born due to strong winds.  Some good ideas from the St. Johns Water Management District:

• Keeping debris out of storm drains and ditches
• Reporting clogged ditches to local governments
• Cleaning out gutters and extending downspouts at least four feet from structures
• Building up the ground around the home to promote drainage away from the foundation

Local -- Jax/NE Fl./SE Ga. -- impacts from "Hermine":

With a midnight landfall -- +/- a couple of hours -- near the Florida Big Bend, expect the peak impacts for Jax/NE Fl./SE Ga through Thu. night through Friday but tornadoes are already a concern Thu. afternoon:

- winds will increase & peak through Fri. morning at 50-60 mph with higher gusts over Southeast Ga. - closest to the eye of "Hermine" with probable hurricane gusts for Waycross, Blackshear & Homerville & near hurricane gusts for Brunswick, St. Simons Island, Kingsland & Folkston..... winds peak at 20-40 mph for Jacksonville & Northeast Florida but with gusts of 50+ mph... the Lake City area will experience at least a little higher wind due to proximity to the eye of "Hermine".  Locally much more intense winds will occur with any tornadoes.  Winds will diminish from west to east Friday afternoon & evening with a shift to westerly -- offshore -- winds.

- bands of heavy rain & a few t'storms - heavy rain at times - most widespread later Thu./ Thu. night/Fri. with the potential for rainfall of 6"+ in some spots by Fri. night.

- increase in tornado / waterspout threat through Friday

- rough seas & surf, potentially dangerous rip currents at area beaches.  Winds will turn more from the south Thu./Thu. night then offshore Fri. which will help some with the pounding that the beaches have endured for the past several days.  Surfers will no doubt enjoy the cleaner offshore wind Friday but beware of the dangerous marine & beach conditions!

- new moon phase arrives Thu. Sept. 1 so tides will have some astronomical input.  Expect higher than average tides for an extended time - both at the beaches as well as along the St. Johns River & its tributaries causing localized flooding + beach erosion.  High tide @ Mayport (then +/- up & down the coast, the St. Johns River & smaller water systems):

THURSDAY - 9:27am & 9:45pm..... FRIDAY - 10:09am & 10:24pm.... get tide times here.

-storm surge is not a great concern due to landfall on the other side of the coast followed by movement more inland but there still will be a small surge for NE Florida and as much as 1-3 feet of surge for Southeast Ga.

Forecast models have now developed some consistency with a probable landfall between Tallahassee & the Big Bend a little after midnight in the wee hours of the morning Friday.  The center will turn more east upon landfall moving west of Lake City to near Waycross, Ga. then to not too far from Savannah.  Don't get too caught up with the exact center position as impacts will reach far from -- & well in advance -- of the center.

As for intensity... "Hermine" should be a Cat. 1 hurricane upon approach to the Northwest Florida Coast & then will slowly decrease intensity due to the transit over land to the north & west of Jacksonville.

Satellite imagery shows an organizing tropical cyclone with pulses of convection but still some evidence of shear.... & -- to the west -- dry air:

NHC forecast below for the chance of storm surge greater or equal to 3 feet (Big Bend & possibly coastal Ga./S. Carolina).... ** NEW ** products availabe! -- interactive potential storm surge (inundation [how many feet above ground]) probabilities ** here **...... prototype interactive storm surge watch/warning graphic ** here **.

Model forecasts "Hermine":

Radar imagery below courtesy the S. Florida Water Management District (the solid line shows the forecast track for "Hermine"):

Surface map:

NOAA WaveWatch III (refresh for loop):

Meanwhile... tropical depression #8 which formed Sunday morning was declared dissipated early Thu......

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Water vapor imagery below shows an area of dry air over the Northwest Gulf which is helping to limit the convection on the west side of "Hermine".  Lots of dry air over the Central Atlantic which could interrupt development -- for a while -- of waves moving west off Africa.....

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Overall wind shear has weakened over the Gulf of Mexico but "Hermine" will encounter increasing shear as the storm approaches landfall:

Plenty of rain is likely this week across Florida & nearby areas including the First Coast with Jax & surrounding areas receiving 4-8", locally more with the heaviest along & northwest of an approximate line from Ocala to Orange Park to JIA to Fernandina Beach including all of SE Ga.:

The strong wave that moved off the coast of Africa more than a week ago & became tropical depression #7 last Monday and is now "Gaston" .... briefly intensified into a hurricane overnight Wed./early Thu. & is now back to hurricane strength becoming the first "major" (Cat. 3) hurricane of the Atlantic season late Sunday.  A recurve  to the north  then east will keep the tropical cyclone well to the east of the U.S. over the open Atlantic so no local or U.S.  impacts. A tropical storm WARNING is in effect for the Western Azore Islands:

"Spaghetti" plots for "Gaston":

East Atlantic:

Satellite imagery centered on Africa & the far E. Atlantic shows the disturbances lined up across Africa - pretty classic for this time of year.  At least the first half of September is looking busy for the Atlantic Basin & it's within the realm of possibility that at least two named storms could make U.S. landfall between now & mid Sept.  Many global forecast models have been hitting on a long track Cape Verde tropical cyclone for the week of Labor Day (but well to the east through at least Labor Day weekend)... likely forming from a wave that has just moved off the coast of Africa.  Global models have -- for now -- slowed the development of the system not to mention -- no surprise (!) -- shown a lack of any real consistency. Lots of dry air will likely limit much development until west of about the half way point of the Atlantic Ocean.

Lots of warm water to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equates to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Over the East Pacific, "Madeline" is moving away from Hawaii where damage generally was not severe.  Yet a second tropical cyclone -- "Lester" will approach Hawaii by the weekend.  The governor of Hawaii has declare a state of emergency.

Cox Media Group