"Talking the Tropics With Mike": NHC "Matthew" surge survey - Nov. 9th

Nov. 9, 2016 — There is a large area of "disturbed" weather over the Eastern Atlantic.  While there is some potential for surface low pressure to develop, this system will stay far to the east.

This week marks one month since hurricane "Matthew" made its closest approach to Florida & Jacksonville (Oct. 7) .... followed by a landfall on the S. Carolina coast.  Click -- HERE -- for a personal summary of the hurricane.

The National Hurricane Center has already surveyed a large part of the coast most directly impacted by "Matthew".  I had an opportunity to interview NHC director Dr. Rick Knabb Fri., Oct. 14th as the NHC was traveling north up the coast through Jacksonville Beach.  You can listen to his comments on my Twitter or Facebook fan page accounts.  Click - HERE - for the NOAA story on how the new storm surge watch/warning graphic compared to reality.  Subsequent studies will follow regarding the prototype inundation graphic & that forecast compared to reality (rather favorably in my humble opinion).  Photos below courtesy NOAA/NHC......

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Water vapor imagery:

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The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis.  Shear is strong near the disturbance over the Caribbean:

Gulf of Mexico:

East Atlantic:

There is still a lot of warm water remains to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equate to 82 degrees Fahrenheit & those water temps. are starting to shift south with the change of seasons.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average.  Sea surface temps. have turned a little cooler than average around Florida north up the Carolina coast.

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