"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Old front from Gulf to Central Atlantic - Oct. 30th

Oct. 30, 2016 — An old -- essentially stationary -- front is strung out from the Central Gulf to the Bahamas to the Central Atlantic.  We might need to keep an eye on this boundary for any persistent convective clusters &/or surface low pressure that might try to develop.  Nothing indicated at the moment though the boundary is active with multiple clusters of convection.

Otherwise.... for the first time in a long time, the globe has gone quiet from a tropical cylcone standpoint:

Water vapor imagery:

The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis.  Shear is strong near the disturbance over the Caribbean:

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Gulf of Mexico:

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East Atlantic:

There is still a lot of warm water remains to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equate to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average.  Note the pretty strong recent cooling along the immediate coast of Central/Northeast Fl. north to the Tidewater - probably due to some upwelling following "Matthew":

Cleanup continues from Virginia to Florida following one of the more destructive hurricanes to impact the U.S. in many years & what will most likely be the most destructive hurricane to affect Northeast & East Central Florida since at least the late 1970s & possibly 1964.  "Matthew's" only U.S. landfall  -- but third overall -- was a hit 0n the upper S. Carolina coast not far from Myrtle Beach Sat. morning/Oct. 8th (previous landfalls were Haiti & Cuba).  The land interaction deteriorated the core enough so that no redevelopment occurred once back over water thus ending any threat for a loop.  A new coastal inlet in extreme Southern St. Johns Co. was confirmed by the Jax N.W.S.  Nearly 500 homes were damaged in just Duval County.  My own personal summary, account & experiences can be found in the "Buresh Blog".   You can find pics & reports on my Twitter account + Facebook fan page.

In post hurricane analysis, the USGS reports that there were at leat 40 peak flood records in the Southeast U.S. including 2 in Duval Co. along the St. Johns River - Jacksonville & Pottsburg Creek, Southside.

The graph below is the gage height with a maximum where one would expect it - Oct. 7 & 8 - during & right after "Matthew".  But the river stayed high & in flood stage through Oct. 15th (& beyond) as the water was very slow to recede.

I thought this graph was interesting & indicates the salinity [parts per thousand] of the St. Johns River with a big spike at around the time of hurricane "Matthew" - an indication of the huge surge of ocean west from the Atlantic as the east & northeast winds cranked in advance of (to the north of) Matthew's march north/northeast.

The Jax N.W.S. has posted a preliminary synopsis -- including top wind gusts & rainfall & county by county breakout of the some of the more hard hit areas of Duval, St. Johns, Nassau, Putnam & Clay Co.

Cox Media Group