"Talking the Tropics With Mike": "Pop Goest the Weasel" near Florida Straits - Sept. 9th

Sept. 9, 2016 — WE'RE APPROACHING THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON. You should always be prepared & aware. First Alert Hurricane Center ** here **. Reminder that flood insurance policies take 30 days to take effect..... & will not be written when/if a named storm is nearby.

Just like that... a tropical wave has interacted with a stalled frontal zone to produce a strong cluster of t'storm activity over & near the Florida Straits. Forecast models are not much help as of the moment not really detecting much in this vicinity at the surface though the European wave does hint an open wave that eventually moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Virtually none of the models develop much from this area of "disturbed" weather. But this is a set-up I mentioned early Fri. -- watch out along old stalled fronts this time of year that are not too far from the tropics. It looks like this convection/possible developing surface low will move westward with no impacts on Jax/NE Fl./SE Ga. But heavy rain will occur across South Florida through the weekend.

Radar imagery below courtesy South Florida Water Management District:

A weak tropical wave is east & northeast of Puerto Rico & will move west/northwest moving to near Florida by early next week but -- again -- models are not impressed. This wave should cross Florida late Mon./Tue./Wed. & should enhance rain for Florida including Jacksonville & surrounding areas.

Water vapor imagery below shows the dry air over much of the Gulf of Mexico & Central Caribbean... as well as the Central Atlantic. In fact, dry air extends across much of the Florida Peninsula which should keep the "disturbed" area over the Florida Straits from getting too far out of hand.

Wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear). Pockets of strong wind shear are scattered throughout the Atlantic Basin with a large area of shear over the Central & Eastern Atlantic. Overall -- the Atlantic in particular -- is rather hostile for tropical cyclones, for the moment.

Gulf of Mexico:

East Atlantic:

Satellite imagery centered on Africa & the far E. Atlantic shows tropical waves lined up across the E. Atlantic & Africa - pretty classic for this time of year. September is looking busy for the Atlantic Basin though not so much within the next week. Long range global forecast models have been inconsistent on development & movement - no surprise!

Part of the potential uptick in activity could be related to the MJO -- Madden-Julian Oscillation which shows a weak to moderate pulse (2nd image below) spreading from the E. Pacific into the Atlantic Basin but that has recently become interrupted though we may see upward vertical velocities regain some footing in the coming days. This general rising air (green lines) often times favors tropical development..... especially when all other things (shear, moisture, etc) are equal -- not the case for the moment. Brown lines show general sinking air.

The early call on a strong wave over the Central Atlantic is for a recurve to the north, but it could become a named storm. Other waves -- all the way east to Africa -- will continue to march west with the potential for development.

Lots of warm water to help "feed" tropical cyclones. Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equates to 82 degrees Fahrenheit. Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.