"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Remnants of "Julia" near Carolina coast - Sept.19th

Sept.19, 2016 — Tropical storm "Karl" over the Central Atlantic... strong wave E. Atlantic....

JUST PAST THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON...  You should always be prepared & aware.  First Alert Hurricane Center ** here **.  Reminder that flood insurance policies take 30 days to take effect..... & will not be written when/if a named storm is nearby.

The last NHC advisory on  "Julia"  was issued late Sunday.  Shear finally had its way with the system & that shear will only increase more with the approach of an upper level trough.  A swirl of low clouds is still visible just offshore of the Carolina's with some occasional weak convection but proximity to land + the shear should keep the remnants in check.

Tropical cyclone "Karl" continues to march westward & is fighting the good fight against shear & dry mid & upper level air.  The more shallow this system remains, the better chance it ends up farther west in the long run as models have been slowly trending west before a recurve.  In addition -- an important nugget to keep in the back of our mind -- forecast models as a whole this season have often been too far east or too early in other words - with recurvature.  So we have a couple of significant considerations while tracking & forecasting "Karl".  There are indications that conditions over the SW Atlantic later this week could be quite favorable for strengthening.  Still early on this one & there will be no land impacts through at least the middle of next week, if ever.  Forecast models are generally pretty insistent on a full recurve for  "Karl", but the longer the cyclone stays weak, the more west the system is likely to get.  Not to mention that the models have been struggling with tropical cyclones a good part of this season.  An upper level trough late in the week/weekend will also be pivotal as to whether or not "Karl" takes the sharp turn to the north.

Water vapor imagery below shows a good deal of dry air over the Central Atlantic which has been helping to limit the intensification of "Karl".

The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis shows a pocket of strong shear near "Karl".

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Gulf of Mexico:

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East Atlantic:

Satellite imagery centered on Africa & the far E. Atlantic shows tropical waves continuing to move westward - pretty classic for this time of year.  The wave over the far E. Atlantic has potential to develop but probably stays well out to sea.  Yet another wave will move off Africa in a few days.

Lots of warm water to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equates to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average:

Over the E. Pacific..... tropical storm "Paine" has quickly strengthened southwest of the Baja of California.  Incredibly - the 16th named storm in this part of the world in just 10 weeks.  While the storm will likely stay west of the Baja & eventually weaken in the long run, tropical moisture is likely to surge northward into Southern California & Arizona & could result in heavy rain later this week.

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Quick look at the Western Pacific.... well developed typhoon "Malakas" -- the 2nd in this area of the world in the past week -- the worst of which stayed just east of typhoon-wary Taiwan is recurving toward Japan as the tropical cyclone gradually weakens.....

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