"Talking the Tropics With Mike": T.D. #12 forms over the far E. Atlantic - Sept. 14th

Sept. 14, 2016 — "Julia" near the coast north of Jacksonville & weakening... tropical depression #12 forms far E. Atlantic... "Ian" over the open water of the Central Atlantic....

NEAR THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON... You should always be prepared & aware. First Alert Hurricane Center ** here **. Reminder that flood insurance policies take 30 days to take effect..... & will not be written when/if a named storm is nearby.

Tropical cyclone"Julia" -- born from a long track tropical wave -- is moving north/northeast hugging the coast north of Jacksonville. The storm is heavily weighted on the north & east side so conditions are pretty benign south & west of the center. The most significant impacts -- torrential rain & gusty winds -- are shifting into Georgia & S. Carolina. The storm will not likely "escape" to the north & east but rather will stall or even drift a bit back west or southwest over the next several days. Gradual weakening should continue.

"Julia" reminds me of tropical storm "Tammy" in October during the infamous 2005 hurricane season. "Tammy" developed very near the coast of Jacksonville dropping a half foot or more of rain near the beaches while next to nothing fell west of I-95. With "Julia" the last couple days.... rainfall has ranged from just more than 6" at St. Simons Island.... to near 1.5" at JIA... to just spotty local downpours farther to the west & south. Peak wind gusts were 50+ mph at the coast but there were no sustained tropical storm force winds over land. Damage on the First Coast will ultimately be near zero.

Radar imagery below courtesy South Florida Water Management District:

Tropical depression #12 has formed over the far E. Atlantic & could become "Karl". A steady movement west/northwest through some pretty harsh conditions (shear + dry air) the rest of this week with some question as to whether or not the system can survive. It's possible that #12 could degenerate into an open wave then POSSIBLY try to rejuvenate farther to the west. Still very early on this one.

Water vapor imagery below shows the dry air over the Western Gulf of Mexico + a large area of dry air over the Central Atlantic that is being sucked into "Ian".

The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis shows pockets of strong wind shear are scattered throughout the Atlantic Basin.... with a large area of shear from the Caribbean northeastward into the Central Atlantic that's helping to tear at "Ian".

Gulf of Mexico:

East Atlantic:

Satellite imagery centered on Africa & the far E. Atlantic shows tropical waves lined up across the E. Atlantic & Africa - pretty classic for this time of year. Long range global forecast models have been inconsistent on development & movement - no surprise! But at least 1, possibly 2 new named storms have a good chance of being born within the next week or so.

"Ian" remains over the Central Atlantic & is moving northward over the open Atlantic - no impacts on any land areas.

Lots of warm water to help "feed" tropical cyclones. Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equates to 82 degrees Fahrenheit. Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.