"Talking the Tropics With Mike": The last month of the Atlantic hurricane season! - Nov. 1st

Nov. 1, 2016 — An old -- essentially stationary -- front continues from the Central Atlantic to the Caribbean with disorganized clusters of convection.  This will be an area to watch but nothing imminent.

Otherwise.... the globe has gone quiet from a tropical cylcone standpoint:

And we're now in the last month of the Atlantic hurricane season(!).

Water vapor imagery:

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The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis.  Shear is strong near the disturbance over the Caribbean:

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Gulf of Mexico:

East Atlantic:

There is still a lot of warm water remains to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equate to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average.  Note the pretty strong recent cooling along the immediate coast of Central/Northeast Fl. north to the Tidewater - probably due to some upwelling following "Matthew" plus the typical seasonal cooling:

Cleanup continues from Virginia to Florida following one of the more destructive hurricanes to impact the U.S. in many years & what will most likely be the most destructive hurricane to affect Northeast & East Central Florida since at least the late 1970s & possibly 1964.  "Matthew's" only U.S. landfall  -- but third overall -- was a hit 0n the upper S. Carolina coast not far from Myrtle Beach Sat. morning/Oct. 8th (previous landfalls were Haiti & Cuba).  The land interaction deteriorated the core enough so that no redevelopment occurred once back over water thus ending any threat for a loop.  A new coastal inlet in extreme Southern St. Johns Co. was confirmed by the Jax N.W.S.  Nearly 500 homes were damaged in just Duval County.  My own personal summary, account & experiences can be found in the "Buresh Blog".   You can find pics & reports on my Twitter account + Facebook fan page.

In post hurricane analysis, the USGS reports that there were at leat 40 peak flood records in the Southeast U.S. including 2 in Duval Co. along the St. Johns River - Jacksonville & Pottsburg Creek, Southside.

The graph below is the gage height with a maximum where one would expect it - Oct. 7 & 8 - during & right after "Matthew".  But the river stayed high & in flood stage through Oct. 15th (& beyond) as the water was very slow to recede.

I thought this graph was interesting & indicates the salinity [parts per thousand] of the St. Johns River with a big spike at around the time of hurricane "Matthew" - an indication of the huge surge of ocean west from the Atlantic as the east & northeast winds cranked in advance of (to the north of) Matthew's march north/northeast.

The USGS has also released before & after photos from "Matthew".....

Flagler Beach:

Vilano Beach:

New inlet near Matanzas River, St. Johns Co.:

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The Jax N.W.S. has posted a preliminary synopsis -- including top wind gusts & rainfall & county by county breakout of the some of the more hard hit areas of Duval, St. Johns, Nassau, Putnam & Clay Co.

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