"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Tropical storm "Karl" forms over E. Atlantic - Sept. 15th

Sept. 15, 2016 — "Julia" well northeast of Jacksonville...  tropical depression #12 becomes "Karl" far E. Atlantic... "Ian" weakening while moving into the N. Atlantic....

NEAR THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON...  You should always be prepared & aware.  First Alert Hurricane Center ** here **.  Reminder that flood insurance policies take 30 days to take effect..... & will not be written when/if a named storm is nearby.

Tropical cyclone"Julia" -- born from a long track tropical wave -- is crawling northeast off the coast of S. Carolina/Georgia 300+ miles northeast of Jacksonville.  The storm is still heavily weighted on the north & east side so conditions are pretty benign south & west of the center but hurricane hunter aircraft late Thu. indicated sustained winds of 40 mph so "Julia" was again deemed a tropical storm.  The circulation became far removed from the t'storm activity again Thu. evening as northwesterly shear continues.  The storm will not likely "escape" to the north & east but rather will stall or even drift a bit back west or southwest over the next several days.  Gradual weakening should occur despite the center residing over water & not far from the Gulf Stream as "Julia" is on the southern edge of strong shear.  We still will need to watch how "Julia" moves/behaves in case the center gets far enough south of the shear + stays over water allowing the tropical cyclone to maintain itself or even intensify next week.... especially given the "presistent & unique character" of the system this week.

Tropical depression #12 formed over the far E. Atlantic Wed. & became "Karl" late Thu. evening.  A steady movement west/northwest through some pretty harsh conditions (shear + dry air) the rest of this week with some question as to whether or not the system can survive or at least thrive.  The more shallow this system remains, the better chance it ends up farther west in the long run.  There are indications that conditions over the SW Atlantic by later next week could be quite favorable for strengthening.  Still very early on this one & there will be no land impacts through at least the middle of next week.

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Water vapor imagery below shows a good deal of dry air over the Central Atlantic which could interfere with the intensification of "Karl".

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The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis shows strong shear over "Julia".

Gulf of Mexico:

East Atlantic:

Satellite imagery centered on Africa & the far E. Atlantic shows tropical waves lined up across the E. Atlantic & Africa - pretty classic for this time of year.  Long range global forecast models have been inconsistent on development & movement - no surprise!  The next potentially named system will move off Africa soon.

"Ian" is moving into the North Atlantic - no impacts on any land areas & cooler water + shear & dry air will help transition the storm to a rather intense extratropical low.

Lots of warm water to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equates to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average:

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Quick look at the Western Pacific.... typhoon "Meranti" has moved inland over China & will dissipate... but "Malakas" will become a strong typhoon & is forecast to move near or just east of typhoon-wary Taiwan then recurve toward Japan as a weakening system by then.....

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Cox Media Group