"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Tropical wave approaching Florida - Sept. 12th

Sept. 12, 2016 — A weak tropical wave will cross Florida early this week.....

AT THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON...  You should always be prepared & aware.  First Alert Hurricane Center ** here **.  Reminder that flood insurance policies take 30 days to take effect..... & will not be written when/if a named storm is nearby.

A tropical wave is over the Bahamas & will steadily move west/northwest crossing Florida Tue.  While no significant surface development is expected, we will see an increase in the rain for the First Coast.

Radar imagery below courtesy South Florida Water Management District:

Water vapor imagery below shows the dry air over the Western Gulf of Mexico + a large area of dry air over the Central Atlantic interrupted by a developing tropical cyclone.

The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis shows pockets of strong wind shear are scattered throughout the Atlantic Basin & are playing a role in keeping the waves east & west of Florida from organizing much.... with a large area of shear from the Caribbean northeastward into the Central Atlantic.

Gulf of Mexico:

East Atlantic:

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Satellite imagery centered on Africa & the far E. Atlantic shows tropical waves lined up across the E. Atlantic & Africa - pretty classic for this time of year.  Long range global forecast models have been inconsistent on development & movement - no surprise!

Meanwhile... the MJO -- Madden-Julian Oscillation -- was in a favorable state the last week to 10 days, but the pulse (2nd image below) has all but suddenly collapsed.  General rising air (green lines) often times favors tropical development..... especially when all other things (shear, moisture, etc) are equal.  Brown lines show general sinking air which has now spread across much of the Eastern Pacific & Western Atlantic Basin.  Such a state doesn't preclude tropical development, but the general sinking air could at least limit the number of systems that might try to develop.  We'll likely see some additional quick turn-arounds in the state of the MJO in the coming weeks.

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The call on a strong wave (Invest 94L) over the Central Atlantic is for a recurve to the north, but will probably become "Ian".  The wave is battling strong shear to the immediate northwest which is evident on satellite imagery.

Lots of warm water to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equates to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average:

Quick look at the Western Pacific.... Heads-up for Taiwan & surrounding areas as typhoon - "Meranti" -  steadily marches W/NW with the potential for a significant hit on the island nation by Wed.

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