"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Wave enters Eastern Caribbean - Sept. 5th

Sept. 5, 2016 — "Hermine" - still a menace for the U.S. east coast............

Cat. 1  landfall on the Southeast Panhandle & Big Bend area of Florida just east of St. Marks between 1 & 1:30am Friday.  This was the first hurricane hit on Florida since "Wilma" in Oct., 2005.... & the first hit on the Panhandle since "Ivan" in Sept., 2004.

WE'RE APPROACHING THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON.  You should always be prepared & aware.  First Alert Hurricane Center ** here **.  Reminder that flood insurance policies take 30 days to take effect..... & will not be written when/if a named storm is nearby.

"Hermine" became a post-tropical cyclone (meaning it isn't completely warm core) Saturday & is ever so slowly moving north just of the U.S. east coast.  "Hermine" will bend back some to the W/NW while completing a loop offshore of the coast east & southeast of New Jersey & New York City through midweek before getting pushed back to the northeast & finally out to sea upon the approach of an upper level trough.  Significant storm surge, tidal flooding, wave action & rip currents are forecast to occur over parts of the Mid Atlantic & Southern New England.  It's possible that "Hermine" could even once again acquire some tropical characterisitics (subtropical) while near the Gulf Stream before moving away from the warmer water.

NHC forecast below for the chance of storm surge greater or equal to 3 feet.... ** NEW ** products availabe! -- interactive potential storm surge (inundation [how many feet above ground]) probabilities ** here **...... prototype interactive storm surge watch/warning graphic ** here **.

Model forecasts "Hermine":

NOAA WaveWatch III (refresh for loop):

Meanwhile... a tropical wave that came off the coast of Africa last weekend has moved into the Eastern Caribbean.  This wave struggled with a lot of dry air initially but has started to come to life - something to keep an eye on through the week with increasingly favorable conditions over the far Western Caribbean &/or Western Gulf of Mexico -- lessening shear though still rather dry.  Virtually no models, however, develop this wave at the moment.  The wave will move through the Caribbean staying well south of Florida gently curving northwest eventually across the Yucatan Peninsula & perhaps into the Western Gulf of Mexico.

Water vapor imagery below shows a lot of dry air over the Central Atlantic which could interrupt development -- for a while -- of waves moving west off Africa..... pretty good dose of dry air over parts of the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico as well.

Wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear).  Strong shear has arrested the development of the wave approaching the Eastern Caribbean.  Once/if west of this shear axis, organization of the wave will be possible (despite models not catching on to anything right now).

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Gulf of Mexico:

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East Atlantic:

Satellite imagery centered on Africa & the far E. Atlantic shows tropical waves lined up across the E. Atlantic & Africa - pretty classic for this time of year.  September is looking busy for the Atlantic Basin & it's within the realm of possibility that at least two named storms could make U.S. landfall between now & mid to late Sept. ("Hermine" the first).   Global models have -- for now -- slowed the development of the wave not to mention -- no surprise (!) -- shown a lack of any real consistency. Lots of dry air will likely limit much development until at least about two-thirds across the Atlantic Ocean.  Moral of the story: don't snooze on these waves!  I would not be surprised, however, to see multiple named storms next week &/or the week after over the Atlantic Basin (Atlantic Ocean/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico).

Part of this uptick in activity could be related to the MJO -- Madden-Julian Oscillation which shows a pulse (2nd image below) spreading from the E. Pacific into the Atlantic Basin.  This general rising air often times favors tropical development..... especially when all other things (shear, moisture, etc) are equal.

Lots of warm water to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equates to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Meanwhile.... over the E. Pacific.... "Newton" has formed just off the west coast of Mexico & south/southeast of the Baja of California where a variety of tropical cyclone watches & warnings are in effect.  The system is expected to impact the Baja by Tue./Wed. & forecast models show the potential for heavy rain for parts of Arizona & possibly Southern California, Utah, Colorado & New Mexico as tropical moisture from the decaying system spreads northward later this week.

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