"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Wet & stormy day for Jax - Sept. 13th

Sept. 13, 2016 — Ninth tropical storm of the season -- "Ian" over the open water of the Central Atlantic.... A tropical wave & surface low will cross Florida through early Wed.....

AT THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON...  You should always be prepared & aware.  First Alert Hurricane Center ** here **.  Reminder that flood insurance policies take 30 days to take effect..... & will not be written when/if a named storm is nearby.

A tropical wave is moving over Florida & will exit into the Gulf of Mexico by Wed.  Heavy rain & storms will affect the First Coast & surrounding areas through Tue. night.  Some rainbands will produce wind gusts of 40-50+ mph .... & there is an isolated tornado threat.

Radar imagery below courtesy South Florida Water Management District:

Water vapor imagery below shows the dry air over the Western Gulf of Mexico + a large area of dry air over the Central Atlantic interrupted by a developing tropical cyclone.

The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis shows pockets of strong wind shear are scattered throughout the Atlantic Basin & are playing a role in keeping the waves east & west of Florida from organizing much.... with a large area of shear from the Caribbean northeastward into the Central Atlantic.

Gulf of Mexico:

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East Atlantic:

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Satellite imagery centered on Africa & the far E. Atlantic shows tropical waves lined up across the E. Atlantic & Africa - pretty classic for this time of year.  Long range global forecast models have been inconsistent on development & movement - no surprise!

Meanwhile... the MJO -- Madden-Julian Oscillation -- was in a favorable state the last week to 10 days, but the pulse (2nd image below) has all but suddenly collapsed.  General rising air (green lines) often times favors tropical development..... especially when all other things (shear, moisture, etc) are equal.  Brown lines show general sinking air which has now spread across much of the Eastern Pacific & Western Atlantic Basin.  Such a state doesn't preclude tropical development, but the general sinking air could at least limit the number of systems that might try to develop.  We'll likely see some additional quick turn-arounds in the state of the MJO in the coming weeks.

"Ian" has formed -- as expected --  over the Central Atlantic & will be an early recurve with the turn to the north already underway.  The tropical cyclone will even stay well east of Bermuda so no impacts on any of the U.S.

An active tropical wave is over the far Eastern Atlantic.  This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone while it moves west/northwest.  The key on how far west this system goes could very well end up tied to its intensity.  A weaker & slower to develop system would probably manage to get farther west.  Plenty of time to see how this one might play out.

Lots of warm water to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equates to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average:

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Quick look at the Western Pacific.... Heads-up for Taiwan & surrounding areas as typhoon - "Meranti" -  steadily marches W/NW with the potential for a significant hit on the island nation by Wed.  Impressive! satellite imagery below.....

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