Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *NOT* helpful & will not keep glass from breaking.
Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or damage that might occur.
There continue to be a couple of pretty active tropical waves (mixed with upper lows &/or surface fronts) over the Central & Eastern Atlantic. The waves won’t be able to make it much more than about half way (or less) across the Atlantic so any threat is far to the east of the U.S., but there is at least some potential for development through the next week to 10 days over the Central Atlantic while turning northward with time.
One exception is a nontropical low over the Central Atlantic that will initially zip W/NW to near & north of Bermuda then turn more northward over the NW Atlantic. This low might try to become subtropical or even tropical while in the vicinity of Bermuda but should then weaken over the NW Atlantic as the system encounters stronger shear & cooler sea surface temps.
Forecast models continue to show low pressure developing east of Fl. this weekend. This low won’t be very strong, but there should be some enhanced onshore flow & rough seas/surf for the coasts from the Carolina’s to Chesapeake Bay... & - to some degree - on the east coast of Florida & Georgia. As the low moves to the northeast within close proximity of the Gulf Stream, we’ll have to watch some possible “tightening”, but a significant low does not appear to be a threat.
Meanwhile... powerful hurricane “Roslyn” is set to hit the Pacific side of Mexico (see 2nd image below).... more on Roslyn near the bottom of this post.
Water vapor loop shows pockets of dry air (dark blue) across portions of the Atlantic Basin along with a lot of “swirls” (low pressure) along with “bands” of higher moisture near & ahead of fronts - common as we get deeper into autumn:
October origins:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin through September. This season so far is well below avg.:
Wind shear:
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, we’ve had several large dust plumes spread west to the Caribbean & Gulf with the peak of Saharan dust typically in June & July.
2022 names..... “Lisa” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 & Ida in ‘21]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Charley”, “Frances”, “Jeanne” & “Ivan” retired from the ‘04 list (all hit Fl.) & “Matthew” was retired in 2016. The WMO decided - beginning last year - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:
Updated Atlantic seasonal forecast from early Aug. - NOAA & CSU:
The East Pacific:
“Roslyn” developed Thu. & became a “major” hurricane early Sat. over the far east Pacific off the west coast of Mexico & will bend rather sharply north then northeast moving into the West Central Mexican coast early Sunday as a hurricane.
A Hurricane WARNING is in effect for: Playa Perula to El Roblito... Las Islas Marias A Hurricane WATCH is in effect: north of El Roblito to Mazatlan... A Tropical Storm WARNING is in effect for: south of Playa Perula to Manzanillo... north of El Roblito to Mazatlan
West Pacific:
Global tropical activity: