Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.
Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage that might occur.
*** LOCAL (Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.) IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICS: None. (light to moderate easterly swell at area beaches partially due to distant Tammy)
The Atlantic Basin Overview:
** Tammy is over the Central Atlantic...
** Potential development over the Caribbean
(1) A tropical wave/low pressure area - ‘94-L’ - was upgraded to tropical storm “Tammy” late last Wed. (10/18) & to a hurricane last Fri. morning (10/20) & was finally deemed post-tropical early Thu.... then back to a tropical storm Fri. morning.
It looks like Tammy will be left behind by the upper level trough that will move across the N. Atlantic. So Tammy will likely languish over the Central Atlantic well north of the Caribbean & east of Bermuda. Tammy will produce some gusty winds for Bermuda along with a few squalls of heavy rain before moving eastward away from the island later in the weekend.
Additional spaghetti plots for Tammy:
(2) The Caribbean is quiet for the moment but several global forecast models indicate low pressure developing over the weekend into next week. It’s possible this will become a tropical system over water that is still very warm to great depths. This is a typical late season “hot spot” & will need to be closely monitored. Early indications are that there would be some kind of northward movement if a system does indeed develop.
The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean:
Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):
October tropical cyclone origins:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for October:
Wind shear:
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.
2023 names..... “Vince” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The brighter colors are expanding dramatically as we near the peak of the hurricane season.:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:
East/Central Pacific:
West Pacific:
Global tropical activity: