Oct. 24, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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A tropical wave combined now with an area of low pressure with persistent showers & t'storms has moved over the Bay of Campeche of the SW Gulf of Mexico. There are some signs of organization & t'storms are increasing. Indications are that this low will move north/northeast & eventually - over the weekend - hook up with a cold front & move northeast to the Gulf Coast by late Sat./Sun. It appears that the system will remain rather weak but could become a tropical depression or even low end tropical storm before feeling the effects of shear & before becoming more extra- or post-tropical (hybrid low pressure) by late in the weekend.
Expect at least heavy rain through the weekend from the Texas coast eastward through Louisiana, Mississippi & Alabama & the Fl. Panhandle.
Rainfall forecast:
Atlantic dust:
2019 names..... "Olga" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:
Nontropical low pressure will developing over the open North Atlantic through next week well to the north & east of Bermuda. There is some chance for transition to a tropical or subtropical low in the long range (7+ days).
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:
The Atlantic Basin:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Global tropical activity.... typhoon "Bualoi" will recurve the next few days to the east of Japan.