Trump closing the gap on Biden in Florida, UNF poll shows

Survey of likely Florida voters conducted Oct. 12 - 16 has Biden leading by one point.

A snapshot of the race for the White House in Florida shows a tightening in recent weeks. A poll of likely voters by UNF shows Joe Biden holding a one-point lead over President Trump.

Just two weeks ago a similar poll had Biden with a five-point lead.

“While some polls have shown Biden with a big lead in Florida and other key states, we made an effort to capture hard-to-reach voters and our results suggest that it might be a long night on November 3rd,” said Dr. Michael Binder, PORL faculty director and associate professor of political science. “This is Florida, and elections are never easy here, I expect this race to come down to the wire.”

The Public Opinion Research Lab conducted its poll of 863 registered, likely Florida voters from Monday, October 12 through Saturday, October 16.

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President Trump’s job approval was closely split as 47% of likely voters approve of the job he is doing while 49% disapprove. Very few people find themselves in the middle with Trump as 82% of the respondents have strong approval or disapproval.

43% of survey respondents said they would vote by mail, 29% plan to vote early in-person, and 26% plan to vote on Election Day.

“It is extremely important to remember that with the increased use of mail-in ballots across the country and some competitive states in the Midwest not allowed to start counting their mail ballots until Election Day, we might not know the winner of the election for a few days – and that is just fine,” said Binder.