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The analytics behind the Jaguars’ trades: Jessie Bates III, Davon Godchaux, and Jordan Davis

Jags' Trade Deadline

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — For those waiting for James Gladstone to make his move, he did just that… three times. While other GMs sit on their wealth, afraid to move their pieces around the board, Gladstone seemingly is always on the prowl, looking to move his knights, bishops, rooks, and queens into winning positions.

The Jaguars know they can win a Super Bowl now. So why not give themselves the best opportunity to do just that? Not many teams improve as much in a single day in the middle of the season as the Jags, locking down an All-Pro safety, a dominant run-stuffer, and veteran DL depth.

Let’s dive into what these three players can offer the Jaguars!

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Jessie Bates III

Following the injuries to Eric Murray and Caleb Ransaw, the Jaguars’ safety room suddenly became noticeably thinner and far more inexperienced than the team was probably comfortable with. Rayuan Lane III had shown flashes, but that’s a lot to put on the shoulders of a second-year player with little playing time.

Insert the Jaguars’ search for a veteran safety, and boy did they get one. The Jaguars sent a second- and fifth-round pick to Atlanta in exchange for Jessie Bates, a three-time second-team All-Pro safety.

Bates is the epitome of everything the Jaguars could need or want at the safety position. His identity as a player matches Jacksonville’s beautifully: stop the run and force turnovers. In fact, Bates is the only player in the NFL to have 10+ INTs and 10+ forced fumbles since 2022.

Among DBs, he ranks second in INTs (18) and first in forced fumbles (12) over the last five seasons. Since being drafted, only Kevin Byard (29) has more INTs than Jessie Bates’ 28. Oh yeah, he’s also scored defensively five times in his career. Big plays are just in his DNA.

Outside of turnovers, there’s still a lot to like about Bates. He’s played over 95% of snaps in all nine seasons, posting a career passer rating allowed of 82.3, according to Pro Football Focus. This season also happens to be a new career-low missed tackle rate (6.3%), drastically improving in the area in his career.

The Jaguars needed a veteran presence in the secondary following the injury to Eric Murray, and who better than Bates? He brings Super Bowl experience with a knack for the big play, something the Jaguars’ defensive coordinator certainly covets.

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Davon Godchaux

Truthfully, doing analytical studies on nose tackles is tough to do justly. Godchaux has been a solid, capable gap-eater for a decade now, posting 487 tackles, 23 TFLs, and 5.5 sacks across his 10 seasons.

He won’t blow teams away with pressures or sacks, but his run-defense is why he’s been a 10-year starter in the league. Following the injury to DaVon Hamilton, James Gladstone knew he likely needed to find external help to try to fill the 335-pound void.

Hamilton’s 12.6% run-stop rate was among the best at the position; however, the Jags’ other DTs didn’t fare nearly as well. Arik Armstead (6.8%), Matt Dickerson (2.5%), and Ruke Orhorohoro (2.4%) aren’t exactly what the Jaguars were looking for in their nose tackle heading into the playoffs.

Godchaux gives the Jags’ quality depth at NT and someone who can rotate in and produce immediately. In 2024, Godchaux led the NFL with 35 run-stops. He’s a couple seasons removed from that, but he’s still got some gas in the tank, especially now in a rotational role.

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Jordan Davis

I mentioned how analytics are difficult at the nose tackle position; well, not for Jordan Davis. Since 2025, Davis is second in defensive stops (58), first in run-stops (50), and first in run-tackles (68). With the trades for Godchaux and Davis, the Jaguars now have the run-stop leaders from each of the last two seasons on their roster.

The Jaguars paid a hefty price, and Davis has played just 52% of snaps in 2026, but he’s there to give Anthony Campanile flexibility back as a playcaller. Funnily enough, as soon as Hamilton went down, the Jags allowed their first 75-yard rusher since the 2024 season.

James Gladstone and company said, “never again.” He isn’t going to be the interior pass-rusher that Jags fans have been clamoring for, but he’s the best chance the Jags have to play their style of ball at its finest.

It’s been a bit of a dip in production for Davis this season, and the Eagles on the whole; however, Jacksonville seems like the perfect fit for him. The Jags know who he is and what he excels at, and it’s just what they want in their defensive lineman. Stop the run and everything else will fall into place. His best football is likely ahead of him at just 26 years old.

Without Hamilton, the Jags likely knew they wouldn’t be able to maintain their level of dominance in the run-game. It would thus impact their ability to force turnovers on passing downs. Now, with the additions of two run-stuffers and a ballhawk safety, the Jaguars are back to being one of, if not the, best defenses in the NFL.

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