JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — The Jaguars are divisional champs for the fifth time in franchise history, marking the team’s best record since the infamous 1999 season. Let’s take a look back as to how the Jags got here and what plays contributed most to the team’s success.
Before we get started, I’d like to add that impact plays due to penalties were excluded as it felt unjust. With that out of the way, here are the Jaguars’ statistically most impactful plays of the 2025 regular season.
Honorable Mentions
It almost feels necessary for this list to contain honorable mentions as several of the Jaguars most impactful plays came from just a few games (KC, LV). Thus, I will only include one “impactful game” at most from each game.
Our first honorable mention is Trevor Lawrence’s game-winning TD run against the Kansas City Chiefs. Lawrence’s one-yard score was ultimately the winning play that cemented the Jaguars’ Monday night victory over the Chiefs. It might not have had the added win probability of some of the others plays (5%), but it’s likely the single-most memorable play of the Jaguars’ season.
Funnily enough, one of our other honorable mentions came on a play just prior, Trevor Lawrence’s 33-yard pass to Brian Thomas Jr down the sideline on 3rd and 7. That beautiful pitch and catch in such a critical moment had an even greater effect on the outcome, raising the Jaguars odds of winning by 27% (18% -> 45%).
The last honorable mention came from Jacksonville’s Week 17 victory over the Indianapolis Colts. It happens to be Jarrian Jones’ interception of Phillip Rivers, which raised the Jags’ chances of winning by 20% (52% ->72%).
No.5: Parker Washington goes for 63 yards against the Broncos
While this play might not have as big of an impact in raising the Jaguars’ win probability, it sure felt like it changed the course of the entire game. Prior to this play, the Jaguars had 75% chance to win, but after it shot up to 87% following Parker Washington’s catch and run, where he made several Broncos’ players whiff on tackles.
That singular play had the largest impact on the game’s win probability (12%) and would nearly finalize a crucial Jaguars’ victory in Mile High Stadium, putting the Jaguars in position to go up two scores. It was the biggest play in what might have been the Jaguars’ biggest game of the regular season.
No.4: Arik Armstead strip-sack against the 49ers
This really was the start to the Jaguars’ fantastic regular season, Jacksonville’s first true test.
And they passed with flying colors. This game featured some excellent play from Trevor Lawrence, long runs from Travis Etienne, a punt-return for a touchdown by Parker Washington, and multiple defensive turnovers.
One of those defensive turnovers comes in as the Jaguars’ fourth most impactful play of the2025 season, Arik Armstead strip-sack on Brock Purdy. That singular takeaway gave the Jaguars a 20% greater chance of victory, from 73% to 93%. It essentially guaranteed the Jaguars victory late in that game.
I will add that Devin Lloyd’s interception of Brock Purdy nearly made the list, but ultimately fell just shy of Arik Armstead’s strip-sack, recovery made by Foye Oluokun. It increased Jacksonville’s chances by 17%, from 55% to 72%.
No.3: Parker Washington’s 25-yard reception in Overtime
It’s hard not to include a play from this beautiful disaster of a game. The Jaguars controlled much of the game, but four costly turnovers from Trevor Lawrence resulted in the Jaguars finding themselves in an overtime matchup against a team they were clearly better than.
Luckily, as detrimental as Lawrence’s turnovers were, his three touchdowns and 25-yard yard completion to Parker Washington were enough to offset them. That singular play in overtime added 28% to the Jaguars’ win probability, ultimately being among the game’s most impactful moments.
When the Jaguars needed the offense to score, Trevor Lawrence and Parker Washington were there to answer the call. They make their second appearance on this list as a duo.
No.2: DaVon Hamilton swats the Raiders’ two-point attempt
No Jaguars’ game this season was as up and down as the Raiders game. It saw multiple massive swings in favor of either team, but it ultimately came down to one two-point attempt in overtime that sealed the victory for Jacksonville.
One untimed play decided the fate of the game, the fate of the AFC South, and the fate of the first overall selection in the 2026 NFL Draft. DaVon Hamilton batted Geno Smith’s pass at the line and victory was had in Jacksonville.
The Jaguars’ odds to win sat at 49% going into that play before obviously rising all the way to 100% by the end of it. The 51% swing was the biggest of the season. There are such few plays in the NFL with this level of influence and it capped off a wild, rollercoaster of a game in Las Vegas.
No.1: Devin Lloyd’s pick-six against the Chiefs
This was an easy first choice, even if it doesn’t have the same win probability swing rate (42%) as DaVon Hamilton’s swat. The game, the opponent, the situation, the play, this is the clear most impactful play of the Jaguars’ 2025 season.
This singular play was worth the equivalent of 12.7 points in that game, preventing an easy Chiefs’ touchdown and turning it around for a Jaguars’ score instead. The Jaguars’ odds of victory rose from just 28% all the way to 70%.
For many, it put this Jaguars’ team on the map and helped shape who the Jaguars are today. The Jags and Lloyd have had many memorable plays this season, but this play is the epitome of who Devin Lloyd has been as a player this season and who the Jaguars are as a team.
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