JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — To say the AFC divisional title came down to the wire in 2025 would be an understatement. It was truly a battle until the final week of the season.
If the Jaguars had lost any one of their games during the eight-game win streak, the Texans would have taken home the title. The Colts were very much in the thick of it too, leading the division for much of the season.
Let’s look at where the AFC South offenses stand, how they performed last year, and why they might be better, or worse, in 2026.
Houston Texans
The Texans’ offense is in a tough spot. The defense is the best unit in the league and ready to win a Super Bowl now, and the offense is just kinda there.
Last season, quarterback C.J. Stroud and company ranked 13th in points per game, 24th in yards per play, 22nd in EPA/Play, 17th in EPA/Pass, and 30th in EPA/Rush. None of those are necessarily exciting, though the offensive line’s pass-protection did improve from the season prior, ranking 13th in pressure rate allowed compared to 27th the year prior.
The run-blocking has to improve though. Houston revamped their offensive line again this offseason hoping for continued results. What’s particularly concerning is Stroud’s trajectory. Stroud took the league by storm in his rookie season, tossing 23 touchdowns and 4,100 yards.
But, those numbers have fallen each of the last two seasons. Houston’s passing attack only ranked 20th in explosive play rate last season. The injuries at the receiver position haven’t helped those figures and neither has the run game. The Texans rushing attack ranked among the worst in the NFL last season. It’s why Houston went out and got David Montgomery, who can hopefully put a charge in a pretty putrid run-game.
Indianapolis Colts
If you were to look solely at the numbers from last season, you’d have thought the Colts finished among the best teams in the NFL, ranking 8th in points per game, 8th in yards per play, 7th in EPA/Play, 11th in EPA/Pass, and 1st in EPA/Rush. By nearly every metric, this was a dominant offense, among the NFL’s best.
Well, that was the case for a long while. Over the first half of the season, the Colts were dominant, getting off to a red-hot 8-2 start before their Week 11 bye. Unlike the Texans and Jaguars, however, they finished ice-cold, losing the remaining seven games of the season.
Across the first 10 games, running back Jonathan Taylor rushed for 1,139 yards and 15 touchdowns, averaging 6.0 yards per carry. After the bye, he managed just 3.3 yards per carry for 446 yards and three scores. His efficiency was cut in half and then some. And that’s really where it all went wrong. Without a dominant run-game and subsequent injuries at the quarterback position, the Colts no longer had the high-powered offense they needed to overcome a middling defense. Quarterback Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor return this season, but it’s hard to imagine they get off to as hot of a start as they did in 2025.
Jacksonville Jaguars
If asked which AFC South offense was the one to be most optimistic about, it’s hard to argue against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Their season-long numbers do a disservice to just how good this offense was after acquiring receiver wide receiver Jakobi Meyers from the Las Vegas Raiders at the midseason mark.
The Jaguars ranked 6th in points per game, 18th in yards per play, 12th in EPA/Play, 10th in EPA/Pass, and 19th in EPA/Rush. What those stats don’t tell you is what Trevor Lawrence did over the second half of the season. Lawrence finished the 2025 regular season with SEVEN straight games of 250+ yards and 2+ touchdowns. He nearly added an eighth in the Wildcard matchup against the Buffalo Bills, coming up 12 yards shy.
Parker Washington became the NFL’s clutchest receiver, cementing himself as a true threat once given the opportunity. The biggest question mark is the team’s run-game after the loss of Travis Etienne. The Jaguars’ rushing attack wasn’t all too great to begin with and particularly poor down the stretch. But now the team turns the rock over to Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez Jr.
If Brian Thomas Jr. can return to his 2024 form, this Trevor Lawrence-led passing attack has the potential to be among the very best in the NFL. They were downright dangerous down the stretch, averaging nearly 33 points per game over the last 10 games.
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Tennessee Titans
Before we judge too harshly, somehow, someway, the 2025 Titans faced the NFL’s toughest schedule, despite finishing with the NFL’s worst record the year prior.
It was particularly tough for quarterback Cam Ward who played a total of nine games against the NFL’s top-10 pass defenses. He played just two against the bottom-10. That said, it wasn’t pretty for the city of Nashville. The Titans ranked 30th in points per game, 31st in yards per play, 30th in EPA/Play, 31st in EPA/Pass, and 27th in EPA/Rush.
Truthfully, it was tough out there for Ward and company. The Titans leading receiver was their tight end Chig Okonkwo and leading wide receiver Elic Ayomanor caught just 46% of his targets. To add the cherry on top, three of his top four receivers were rookies.
The run-game wasn’t much better, despite facing some of the lightest boxes in the NFL. The Titans put a lot of effort into improving their skill positions, adding rookie WR Carnell Tate, WR Wan’Dale Robinson, and TE Daniel Bellinger.
It’s hard to imagine they won’t improve in 2026. Statistically, they almost have to. But, it’s also hard to imagine they made enough improvements to battle for the division title. This coming season will be the first true test to see who Cam Ward and the Tennessee Titans really are.
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