Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *NOT* helpful & will not keep glass from breaking.
Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or damage that might occur.
NO IMPACTS from Karl for Jacksonville/NE Fl./ SE Ga....
Low pressure over the Bay of Campeche (far SW Gulf of Mexico) was upgraded to tropical storm “Karl” late Tue. afternoon. A fairly strong trough of low pressure is moving into the Eastern U.S. helping to push a seasonally strong cold front that will sweep across the Southeast U.S. & fairly deep into the Gulf & SW Atlantic by Fri./Sat. Karl will not only be missed by the upper level trough.... but strong high pressure following the front over the Lower 48 + an upper level ridge north of the tropical cyclone will force Karl sharply southward with an eventual turn more to the southwest up to landfall late Fri. night-Saturday. Moderate shear has kept Karl in check & is helping to spread tropical moisture & disorganized convection far to the east & northeast. Nearby dry mid & upper level air + persistent moderate shear should keep Karl from strengthening significantly. Once inland., Karl will weaken & dissipate over land. There will be no impacts to any of the U.S.
For Mexico: A Tropical Storm WARNING is in effect for: Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen
Elsewhere... a pretty active tropical wave has come off the coast of Africa & has some potential to develop. This wave won’t be able to make it much more than about half way (or less) across the Atlantic so any threat is far to the east of the U.S.
Water vapor loop shows pockets of dry air (dark blue) across portions of the Atlantic Basin along with a lot of “swirls” (low pressure) - common as we get deeper into autumn:
October origins:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin through September. This season so far is well below avg.:
Wind shear:
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, we’ve had several large dust plumes spread west to the Caribbean & Gulf with the peak of Saharan dust typically in June & July.
2022 names..... “Lisa” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 & Ida in ‘21]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Charley”, “Frances”, “Jeanne” & “Ivan” retired from the ‘04 list (all hit Fl.) & “Matthew” was retired in 2016. The WMO decided - beginning last year - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:
Updated Atlantic seasonal forecast from early Aug. - NOAA & CSU:
The East Pacific:
West Pacific:
Global tropical activity:
Cox Media Group
