Aug. 26, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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Near the Caribbean.... tropical storm Dorian continues to move steadily westward & slightly northward with gradual structural organization (some banding + a central dense overcast at times) evident on satellite data as t'storms burst then level off for a while. Gusty winds & squalls reach the Windward Islands of the Caribbean Monday night into Tuesday where tropical storm WATCHES & WARNINGS are in effect for some islands + a hurricane WATCH is in effect for St. Lucia.... & a tropical storm WATCH is in effect for Puerto Rico. The official NHC forecast does take Dorian to a hurricane while traversing the NE Caribbean but overall conditions (shear & especially dry air) look marginal which may very well result in some weakening in the longer term, especially if there's much land interaction. A more northward (W/NW) trend has recently occurred possibly owing to a now stronger/deeper storm. The overall marginal atmospheric conditions + possible land interaction - Puerto Rico & Hispaniola - should limit - & possibly decrease - Dorian's intensity - at least for a while - later in the week. It's worth noting that Dorian is a small/compact system & therefore may be susceptible to even small changes in its environment (shear/ dry air/land) resulting in wide intensity swings over a short period of time. In any case.... anyone with travel plans to the Caribbean through the week should stay up to date on the latest forecasts. Strong winds & heavy rain will affect especially the Northern Lesser Antilles through Tue. followed by impacts on Puerto Rico Wed. & the Dominican Republic & Haiti by Thu.
As for once beyond the Caribbean..... the GFS & European models had been consistent on weakening - or even dissipating - Dorian once deeper into the Caribbean &/or over/near Hispaniola (mountainous terrain). HOWEVER, the European has done an about-face with a relatively weak Dorian surviving & then reaching the Florida coast over the weekend while trying to re-strengthen over & near the Bahamas. It seems the European might be onto something with some other global forecast models starting to show similar solutions. It seems likely that a weak trough over the Western Atlantic later this week will not be strong enough to pick up Dorian which would keep the storm turning northward. Instead, high pressure will rebuild in place of the exiting trough. In addition.... the trend now is for Dorian to possibly on brush Hispaniola which would imply less interaction with very mountainous terrain though there may be some interaction with Puerto Rico as well. The UKMET model is showing a similar trend as the European (but has not done particularly well w/ wave '98-L' - too strong, too far west). IF Dorian survives to see the weekend then conditions over the SW Atlantic & near the Bahamas do appear favorable for at least maintaining Dorian if not allowing for strengthening.
So.... the bottom line is stay up to date on the latest forecasts for the Caribbean, Fl. & Southeast U.S. this week into the upcoming holiday weekend.
IR satellite:
Visible satellite:
Tropical wave '98-L' has been upgraded to tropical depression #6 & will likely become tropical storm "Erin" over the Western Atlantic east of the Carolina's. Rip currents along area beaches are the biggest threat from the Carolina's to Chesapeake Bay to possibly New England.
No change in the movement forecast. An upper level trough to the north has become the main steering mechanism taking the storm well east of the U.S. east coast & west & northwest of Bermuda. Other than a rip current risk along the U.S. east coast, no major direct impacts are expected despite what is likely to be a strengthening tropical system this week.
Spaghetti model forecasts for '98-L' & t.s. "Dorian":
An examination of dust over the Central & Eastern Atlantic shows a continuation of a good deal of dust over the Central & Eastern Atlantic as well as parts of the Caribbean. Dorian will encounter much of this dry air in the coming days.
2019 names..... "Erin" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:
The Atlantic Basin:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content:
Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the "Main Development Region" (MDR) remain cooler than avg. along with parts of the Central Caribbean.....
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Cox Media Group
