Talking the Tropics With Mike: T.D. #3 forms 400+ miles northeast of Jacksonville

July 6, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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LOCAL - JACKSONVILLE/NE FL./SE GA. - IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICS:

* Virtually NO impacts from t.d. #3

* what's left of what should be fast weakening Beryl moving through the Caribbean may then turn northward later next week.  At this time, Beryl is not expected to still be a tropical cyclone bur rather a tropical wave.  Depending on the system's location, some heavy rain COULD affect parts of Fl. & the Bahamas later next week.

An upper level trough - & surface low - is over the Western Atlantic about midway between the Carolina's & Bermuda & has developed into tropical depression #3.  The depression is expected to meander east of the Carolina's through Mon./Tue. slowly organizing & intensifying. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM EARLIER FORECASTS.  The change is that a cold front supported by an upper level trough to the north will now likely not pick up this disturbance as previously expected.  So t.d. #3 is forecast to become tropical storm "Chris" over the weekend. The next front & upper level trough later next week should then pick up #3 moving the system N/NE before accelerating to the northeast .... & it's possible that t.d. #3 could attain hurricane strength by the early to middle part of next week.  At this time, t.d. #3 is expected to stay east of the U.S. coastline, but it's something to keep a close eye on from N. Carolina all the way to New England.

Invest '96L' spaghetti model plots:

Analysis below courtesy CIMMS shows water temps. near or a little above 80 degrees & right on the edge of lower shear values for t.d. #3:

Note the frontal boundary north of t.d. # 13 in satellite imagery below.  This front is going stationary which will allow t.d. #13 to "sit & spin" ... waiting on the next upper level trough & surface cold front later next week....

"Beryl" has gone through a fast organizing/strengthening period as a very small but relatively powerful tropical cyclone over the Central Atlantic & has become a hurricane.  The avg. first date for an Atlantic hurricane is Aug. 10th & Beryl is the farthest south & east hurricane to develop over the Atlantic Basin at such an early date.  Only two other hurricanes have formed over the tropical Atlantic so early in the season - both were "Bertha" - in 1996 & 2008.

A product of the modern satellite era - & especially the new & improved GOES-East.... born from one of the first bona-fide African tropical waves of the season,  Beryl's tiny circulation has managed to shrug off dry air to the immediate north... sea surface temps. only in the upper 70s... & has found a niche of sorts within which to thrive...... for now.  But the mid & upper level shear remains very strong over the Caribbean extending several hundred miles to the east of the Caribbean.  That should be good news for the Lesser Antilles as Beryl nears the Windward Islands Sunday/Sunday night but starting to weaken.  Still... tropical storm & hurricane WATCHES have been issued for some of the island since it's difficult to determine how quickly - & exactly when - Beryl spins down as the tropical cyclone marches steadily west/northwest.  Anyone with travel plans to the Caribbean should stay up to date on the latest forecasts.  There will be no impacts on Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. but some heavy rain could occur as far north & west as Puerto Rico & Hispaniola next week depending on the ultimate track & intensity.  What's left of the weakening system could be near or east of Florida by late next week but any impacts looks to be minimal, especially for NE Fl./SE Ga.

Spaghetti plots of 'Invest 95L', now "Beryl":

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear...... note how strong the shear is over & east of the Caribbean which should help shred Beryl in the long term....

A couple of additional strong tropical waves will be moving west off Africa though development seems unlikely at this time....

Water vapor imagery below shows a lot of dry in front (west) of & north of Beryl.....

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The name Beryl, by the way, has a history in Jacksonville.  Recall that tropical cyclone names are repeated every 6 years (unless retired).  In 2012, strong tropical storm Beryl made landfall in Duval Co. - at Jacksonville Beach - early Memorial Day, May 28th & shut down Jazz Fest a day early.

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The storm produced heavy rain, gusty winds & isolated tornadoes.  Image below from NASA/TRMM, Hal Pierce:

Tropical storm Beryl over the Central Atlantic....

Gulf of Mexico:

Water vapor imagery:

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July tropical cyclone genesis areas since 1851 courtesy Dr. Phil Klotzbach:

Deep oceanic heat content is slowly increasing.....

Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Meanwhile.... the W. Pacific... typhoon (W. Hemisphere so hurricanes are referred to as typhoons) "Maria" has become a powerful super typhoon but has likely reached it peak intensity.  The typhoon is forecast to pass just south of Okinawa while staying far to the south of the main islands of Japan.... then into the coast of China south of Shanghai possibly still at Cat. 1 or 2 strength about the middle of next week.  While strengthening, Maria did damage to Guam & at least 4 people have been killed.  Keep in mind that the list of seasonal names for various basins throughout the world are different.  You might recall that "Maria" was retired from the Atlantic Basin list of names after the powerful hit last year by hurricane Maria on Puerto Rico.

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