JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — In Florida, the Seminole Tribe’s Hard Rock Bet app is supposed to be the only legal way to place sports bets, but in recent months, new ways of wagering, or “investing” in the outcome of sports have come online in the Sunshine State.
Ryan Butler, Senior News Analyst at Covers.com, a popular sports betting information website, explains prediction market companies like Kalshi, Polymarket, and now even FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions are available to Florida residents right on their phones.
“They function and look and feel and offer odds in ways that are almost identical to sports betting,” said Butler.
But unlike sports betting offered through official sportsbook apps like Hard Rock Bet, prediction markets aren’t subject to state and federal gambling regulations.
>>> STREAM ACTION NEWS JAX LIVE <<<
“Though they are run by sports betting companies, these are not sports books. Right now, these are considered essentially trading platforms,” said Butler.
Instead, they’re subject to regulation through the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission and are treated like investment or trading platforms.
“And the CFTC, that’s the regulatory body with the federal government, has gone full-throated endorsement of these prediction markets. It’s not tacit,” said Butler. ”They are working with them and they are preemptively suing states they don’t like that think they are violating it.”
Eric Randazzo with the Florida Council on Compulsive Gambling explained that means the apps are accessible to adults as young as 18 and aren’t held to the same consumer safety standards, advertising restrictions or problem gambling advisory requirements.
“As far as helpline contacts, we’re seeing these come up a lot on younger adults, college students in particular. We’re seeing them risking essentials like food and gift money,” said Randazzo.
The legal grey area surrounding prediction markets could put Seminole Tribe’s exclusivity over sports betting in Florida.
The exclusivity guarantee comes with nearly a billion dollars in annual state revenues under the gaming compact with the tribe.
[DOWNLOAD: Free Action News Jax app for alerts as news breaks]
We asked DraftKings whether it believes its prediction market offerings could run afoul of the Seminole Gaming Compact.
“DraftKings is committed to upholding all regulatory standards in every jurisdiction where we operate and maintaining strong relationships with regulators. We have been thoughtful in how we launched DraftKings Predictions and have done so in a way that is respectful of all stakeholders,” a DraftKings spokesperson told Action News Jax in an emailed statement. ”We continue to engage closely with regulators to ensure our approach remains consistent with our obligations and responsibilities as a licensed operator.”
Butler explained that while many states, gaming commissions and tribes with gaming rights have filed lawsuits challenging the legality of prediction markets, the Seminole Tribe has largely stayed on the sidelines up to this point.
“There’s so many other legal challenges and ultimately we’re gonna have the Supreme Court settle all of them. So, it’s almost like save the billable hours if you’re the lawyers and all that,” said Butler. ”I don’t know that specifically, but I do think that’s kind of what the Seminoles are looking at.”
But even if the courts ultimately allow prediction markets to continue, Butler suggested the Tribe could have a hard time alleging a violation of its exclusivity on sports betting, as the State of Florida would have its hands tied as prediction markets are federally regulated.
[SIGN UP: Action News Jax Daily Headlines Newsletter]
“Should the Seminole Tribe suspend their payments to the State of Florida, well then the State of Florida would then sue the Seminoles and say, well we didn’t do anything wrong, we didn’t allow the gambling, this isn’t gambling, this is the federal government’s problem,” said Butler.
When we asked whether Hard Rock Bet is considering legal action against prediction markets, a company spokesperson declined to offer a statement.
Butler said he wouldn’t be surprised if it stays that way until the issue hits the US Supreme Court docket, which could happen as early as this fall.
“If we get it there, then we could expect a ruling in June of 2027,” said Butler.
If you or a loved one is struggling with a gambling addiction, you can call the gambling addiction hotline at 1-888-ADMIT-IT.
Click here to download the free Action News Jax news and weather apps, click here to download the Action News Jax Now app for your smart TV and click here to stream Action News Jax live.
