INVESTIGATES: Florida could face significant doctor shortage by 2035

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — You’ve probably noticed lately how hard it can be to get in to see your doctors. Especially in some specialties. You could be waiting weeks, even months. It’s happening across the country, but especially here in Florida and it’s only going to get worse.

As Action News Jax Investigator Emily Turner found, it comes down to simple numbers. There aren’t enough doctors joining the workforce to meet the demands of a growing and aging population.

It means longer wait times for everyone, but for some, it could be the difference between life and death.

For expectant mom Elizabeth Crowley, having a baby is scary enough, but she has even more reason to be anxious. “It seems like the options in Lake City,” she says, “at least for the care itself, are not that great.”

She lives in Lake City. We found there is no OB/GYN on staff at the only hospital in town. Satellite outpatient care offices have doctor’s hours, but that’s it. Crowley, and every other pregnant woman in Lake City, have to travel at least 45 minutes to Gainesville when it’s time to deliver- or if something worse happens.

“I’m worried about the potential complications, Crowley says, “because I’m about halfway through my pregnancy. If I were to suddenly start bleeding I’m 45 minutes away from the nearest person that can help me, unless it happens to be during doctor hours.”

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The Florida Hospital Association says there is a looming crisis on the horizon when it comes to access to healthcare. Surgeon and President of the Duval Medical Society, Dr. Mark Dobertine, says it’s people like Crowley, who live outside major metros, that feel the effects first.

“I think there are pain points, he says, “and those pain points are certain hospital systems that have chosen not to have certain service lines in their repertoire, as well as about I think 40 percent in the survey said that waits to get into primary care or to see their doctor were somewhere between two and six weeks.”

According to research done by the Commonwealth Fund, Florida ranks 48th in the nation for healthcare access and affordability. That’s a ranking only set to get worse according to a Statewide and Regional Physician Workforce Analysis done by the Florida Hospital Association.

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The study breaks down the state by Medicare regions. Jacksonville is in Region 4. Some of its outlying areas, like Putnam, Bradford and Union, are in Region 3. According to the study, Region 4 is currently short 510 doctors, Region 4 is short 1,558.

Those numbers become more frightening when you fast forward to the future. By 2035 Region 3 is short 2,056 doctors and Region 4 is short 3,040.

It’s a prospect that scares Crowley, “all I see,” she says, “is we’re getting less and less resources and that’s not safe.

A Pandemic, The Great Resignation and a 21% boom in the state’s population heighten the pinch. Researchers estimate that by 2035 Florida doctors will only be able to meet about 76% of the demand for their services. In places like Lake City, it’ll be much, much worse.

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When asked if that could be the difference between life and death, Dr. Dobertine says, “well, I think so sure. I mean, unfortunately, when you’re sick and you’ve had a trauma, you need neurosurgery or you need a baby delivered, it’s very important you get care at the right time in the right place.

While it might easy to simply blame is all on the Pandemic, Dobertine says that’s not fair. Demand for healthcare skyrockets as our population ages, something Florida’s population has been doing by leaps and bounds. Doctors are aging, too. 60% of them are 50 years old or older.

On top of that, Dobertine says, there aren’t enough residency programs in the state to backfill the positions vacated by those older doctors. The Florida Hospital Association report shows the doctor-to-patient ratio in the state will be 3,500 patients to one provider in 2035 if nothing changes. That’s why it’s asking the state for $38 million dollars to expand residency programs.

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