JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Republican candidates Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody hold single-digit leads in early matchups for the 2026 midterm elections, according to a new poll from the University of North Florida. The survey found that 50% of likely voters consider affordability and the cost of living to be the most important problem facing the state.
The poll, conducted by UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab, shows that while Republican candidates maintain an advantage in Florida, the margins are narrower than in previous cycles. Concerns over affordability were consistent across all demographic and partisan groups, though secondary priorities differed, with Republicans focusing on immigration and Democrats emphasizing political division.
Donalds holds single-digit lead in governor’s races
In the potential race for governor, Donalds holds a 42% to 36% lead over Democrat David Jolly, with 17% of voters undecided. When matched against Democrat Jerry Demings, Donalds leads 43% to 36%, with 16% unsure of their choice.
Sean Freeder, director of the Public Opinion Research Lab and UNF professor of political science, said the current results are driven largely by party affiliation.
“At least at this stage in these races, vote choice is much more about partisanship than candidate identity,” Freeder said. “Republicans still enjoy a clear advantage with Florida voters, but it doesn’t yet appear as strong as in previous years.”
Moody holds slim lead in U.S. Senate Race
In the race for U.S. Senate, incumbent Republican Moody leads Democrat Alexander Vindman 45% to 38%. Moody holds a similar lead over Democrat Angie Nixon, 46% to 38%. The poll found that 66% of voters have never heard of Vindman and 74% have never heard of Nixon.
Freeder noted that while Vindman has a slight name recognition advantage, it has not significantly impacted his general election performance in the survey.
Republicans my struggle in Fla. in November
Favorability ratings for high-profile Republican figures are split. Donald Trump has a 45% favorability rating and 48% unfavorability rating. Among independent voters, his net approval sits at -26%. Gov. Ron DeSantis holds a higher favorability rating of 52%, with 42% of respondents viewing him unfavorably.
Freeder said that presidential approval often predicts outcomes for other congressional races, suggesting that “Congressional Republicans may struggle in November.”
Voters expressed significant concern regarding immigration and enforcement. Disapproval of the way the Trump administration handles immigration stands at 49%, while 55% of respondents disapprove of the job being done by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
Additionally, 57% of voters oppose the construction of new immigration detention facilities in Florida. Freeder noted that building such facilities is “particularly unpopular” and may cause state officials to reconsider federal partnerships.
A proposed state constitutional amendment to phase out certain homestead property taxes while protecting law enforcement funding received 56% support. Support is highest among Republicans at 76%, compared to 27% of Democrats and 56% of independents. Homeowners support the measure at a rate of 58%, while 47% of renters are in favor.
Divided public opinion on AI
Public opinion on artificial intelligence is evenly divided, with 48% of voters supporting its rollout and 48% opposing it. However, 86% of respondents support specific regulations, such as requiring chatbots to identify themselves as AI and prohibiting the creation of sexually explicit altered images.
Freeder said that while “common sense” regulations have broad support, the overall growth of AI in daily life remains a point of partisan disagreement.
The survey found high bipartisan support for extending recall election policies. Currently, Fla. statutes allow for the recall of local officials, but 83% of respondents support extending this to the state Legislature and statewide offices. Only 10% of voters expressed opposition to the idea.
In a departure from traditional party lines, 64% of respondents support prohibiting firearms at protests and demonstrations. This includes 64% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats. Freeder said this bipartisan stance might be influenced by recent high-profile incidents of violence and the role of firearms in deaths during past protests.
Recreational marijuana legalization will not appear on the 2026 ballot. Freeder said that while the policy has 66% support, “enough signatures were rejected in legal challenges to keep the issue off the ballot.”
*Methodology: The UNF PORL Florida Statewide Poll consists of a random sample of 786 likely Florida midterm voters, and was conducted from February 21 through March 2, 2026, by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida. This poll used a mixed-mode design, incorporating both telephone interviews and web surveys distributed via text message. Of the likely midterm voters who completed surveys, 605 were completed via telephone and 181 online. The sampling frame, consisting of phone numbers, was sourced from the January 2026 update of the Florida voter file. CLICK HERE for more on the poll
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