Buresh Blog

Buresh Blog: Earth Day... CSU Hurricane Season Forecast... El Nino Watch... Ft. Lauderdale Deluge

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Earth Day turns 53 today after the inaugural Earth Day in 1970. Go * here * for Jacksonville activities.

Dr. Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State University has issued his annual early April forecast for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. The early forecast is for an “average” to perhaps slightly below average season when it comes to numbers. The forecast is largely predicated on a potentially developing El Nino (warming of the equatorial Pacific) which often correlates to a lower number of storms (but has nothing to do with landfall &/or intensity). Klotzbach’s forecast * here *.

Speaking of El Nino... NOAA has issued an El Nino WATCH. This is for the possibility - about 62% right now - of an El Nino (warming of the equatorial Pacific) developing this summer into the fall. The major implication for Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. is the possibility of a lower number of Atlantic named storms during the upcoming hurricane season. But remember to always be prepared during the hurricane season. After-all, Cat. 5 Andrew hit Fl. during an El Nino season. And another word of caution: it’s my opinion that the ENSO (La Nina & El Nino) are generally less predictable - especially specific weather impacts - during the last 15-20 years of warming oceans.

And last - but not least - the historic Fort Lauderdale deluge last week centered on April 12th. The official 24-hour total of 25.91″ may go down as the heaviest on record in 24 hours in Florida. Especially impressive given the downpour was not related to a tropical system. This was *not* a supercell storm, was *not* a tropical cyclone & was *not* widespread. The extremely localized persistent heavy t’storms were “anchored” along a northward moving warm front. The t’storm developed near & over Fort Lauderdale & continuously back-built to the south & southwest while only slowly drifting to the north.

Northward moving warm front:

Meanwhile... much of Central & South Florida remain dry. The typical “wet season” begins in May across South Florida reaching North Florida in June: