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So the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is underway. It’s a quiet first week of the season which isn’t at all unusual. In fact - despite a recent stretch of early season storms going back to 2015, the long term average is only about 1 in very 2 years is there a June named storm in the Atlantic. The average date for the first named storm over the last 30 years is June 20th. So despite forecasts for an active season, that doesn’t necessarily correlate with an early start to the season.
Updated everyday - “Talking the Tropics With Mike”.
Watch this season’s Action News Jax First Alert “Preparing for the Storm”:
The National Hurricane Center has issued its 2023 verification report.
Track errors for the ‘23 hurricane season in the graph below shows an excellent forecast on the only U.S. landfall - Idalia. Bret, Franklin, Nigel, Philippe & Tammy were the most “problematic” but all stayed out at sea.
Intensity errors were largest for Bret, Gert, Jose, Lee & Philippe:
Our “wet season” is off to a slow start! More than half (between 26 & 29″) of Jacksonville’s annual rainfall occurs from June - September courtesy nearly daily sea breeze showers & t’storms as well as influences from the tropics. But La Nina seasons are notoriously late “bloomers” for our active sea breeze afternoons. And since we’re coming off a dry & warm May (6th warmest on record in Jax), we’re noticing the dry start to June even more.
This year - April & May particularly - has produced a lot of severe weather. The number of tornadoes is well above avg. with only the infamous tornado year of 2011 beating 2024 so far. It ought to be “tornadoing” during the spring, but it has been exceptionally active this year.
June skies (Sky & Telescope):
June 8 (dusk): Face west-northwest as twilight deepens to see the waxing crescent Moon in a neat isosceles triangle with Castor and Pollux, the bright star pair of Gemini.
June 11 (dusk): The Moon, two days shy of first quarter, hangs 3° to the upper right of Regulus, Leo’s brightest star.
June 16 (evening): The waxing gibbous Moon visits Virgo, where it gleams 3½° left of Spica.
June 19 (evening): The almost-full Moon is 3½° to the right of Antares, the red supergiant that marks the Scorpion’s heart. The two edge closer as the night wears on.
June 20: The solstice occurs at 4:51 p.m. EDT; today has the longest daylight of the year in the Northern Hemisphere.
June 27 (morning): The waning gibbous Moon and Saturn are about 3° apart in the southeastern sky.
Moon Phases
New Moon June 6 8:38 a.m. EDT
First Quarter June 14 1:18 a.m. EDT
Full Moon June 21 9:08 p.m. EDT (Strawberry Moon; also Blooming Moon, Green Corn Moon)
Last Quarter June 28 5:53 p.m. EDT
